570
FXUS64 KTSA 172330
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

MCV continues to slowly drift SSE toward southeast OK this
afternoon. Cluster of showers has been persistent in the vicinity
of this feature and this trend will likely continue through the
evening. Extensive cloud cover has kept temps considerably cooler
today, and has also limited instability somewhat. Should still
ultimately see at least scattered storms develop south of I-40
into this evening, with perhaps a few marginally severe storms.
Also, with PWAT values analyzed near 2 inches in the vicinity of
the MCV, pockets of heavy rainfall may occur. Overall expected
trend will be for precip chances to move southward with time
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Aside from some lingering chance of showers across far southeast
sections of the forecast area Thursday, a quiet stretch of
weather expected through Friday with below normal temperatures as
a drier airmass moves in behind the clod front. The anticipated
pattern will begin to favor a return to periodic thunderstorm
chances beginning Saturday as longwave troughing pattern
establishes over the plains into the first half of next week. The
severe weather threat should remain low, but some potential for
locally heavy rainfall will exist. This will also keep
temperatures below average for several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ceilings have lifted and broken apart over the last few hours,
resulting in VFR conditions everywhere. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through at least
midnight tonight (perhaps an hour or two after), highest chances
occurring at the AR terminal sites as well as at KMLC. Included a
TEMPO group at these sites to reflect this. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
can be expected if storms push over any terminal. Otherwise, VFR
is expected to prevail through the next 24 hours at all sites,
with SCT-BKN mid/high clouds and light-moderate NE/NNE winds
through the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  70  87  64 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   90  73  88  68 /  30  40  20   0
MLC   88  70  86  66 /  40  50  20   0
BVO   89  65  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   87  66  85  60 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   86  65  84  61 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   87  70  87  64 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   88  65  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
F10   88  69  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
HHW   93  71  83  68 /  40  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...67