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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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923 FXUS64 KTSA 201723 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A decaying band of precipitation is moving into northeast OK, and could bring a few showers as far east as the Tulsa area before it falls apart. Otherwise, much of the day today will feature a mix of clouds and sun with mild temperatures in the 80s to around 90F. Some CAM guidance brings a reinvigoration of showers or thunderstorms by mid afternoon, but more likely any widespread storm activity will hold off until the evening or overnight as an upper level feature approaches the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the area tonight and Sunday as an upper level disturbance rotates around the upper trough over the area. Some locally heavy rainfall amounts will be possible, especially in northeast Oklahoma tonight and early Sunday. The upper trough will remain over the area for much of the next week, but will gradually weaken and lift northeast leaving more of a generalized upper weakness over the area by late week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the early part of the week, with convective chances lessening some later in the week and becoming more diurnally driven. Temperatures will also slowly increase next week, but likely continue to remain slightly below the seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Much of the afternoon hours today will feature a mixture of clouds and sun with SCT to occasionally BKN coverage near 5 kft with additional high clouds at 15-25 kft. A few sprinkles will be possible for TAF sites in eastern OK this afternoon. Winds will mostly be less than 10 kts and out of the southeast. Ceilings will develop and lower this evening and overnight, possibly down to 3-4 kft by morning. Additionally, areas of showers and storms will develop, with most TAFs carrying a 30% chance of storms tonight. Storms will first move into northeast OK this evening, spreading to other areas after midnight. The main hazards will be lightning and heavy rain. Winds will mostly remain light but could become gusty briefly by any storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 81 67 86 / 50 40 20 20 FSM 70 84 69 87 / 20 30 30 40 MLC 69 83 67 84 / 30 40 20 30 BVO 64 82 64 85 / 50 30 10 20 FYV 65 79 64 84 / 30 50 30 50 BYV 65 80 64 83 / 30 50 30 50 MKO 69 81 67 84 / 40 40 30 30 MIO 66 81 64 84 / 50 50 20 30 F10 68 82 67 84 / 50 50 30 30 HHW 70 85 69 84 / 20 30 30 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...06