985
FXUS64 KTSA 181854
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
154 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024
A few scattered showers have developed this afternoon across far
southeast Oklahoma where the deeper moisture resides. An isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible near the Red River through
the remainder of the afternoon hours. Further north, a significantly
drier air-mass has filtered into NE OK/NW AR with mild/less humid
conditions for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A seasonably cool start is expected Friday morning with another
pleasant afternoon as surface ridge remains over the area.
Southerly winds will return on Saturday with increasing low level
moisture. A weak mid level disturbance will swing around base of
trough with increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday into
Sunday. Deterministic GFS solution is more aggressive with wave
compared to EC with higher QPF across southeast Oklahoma. With the
large spread in the GEFS, the more broad and lower rainfall
amounts seems reasonable for now.

Another weak upper low will approach from the north on Monday as
long wave troughing remains over the central/southern Plains,
extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. Most areas will
receive at least some rainfall (0.25 inch) over the weekend into
early next week, with locally higher amounts with these two
systems. Increasing cloud cover/precip chances will likely keep
high temperatures several degrees below normal both Sunday/Monday.

Although a slow warming trend is expected into mid week, the overall
weather pattern will not significantly change with the upper trough
remaining over the region. Temperatures are forecast to stay near
or slightly below normal with a least low rain chances across SE
OK/NW AR through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period for most locations
with FEW-SCT coverage in the 3-5 kft layer and some additional
high clouds. Winds will mostly be light and out of the east to
northeast.

Somewhat thicker clouds as well as a few showers or thunderstorms
could result in brief MVFR conditions near KMLC, but most likely
these storms will stay south of there. Any showers and storms will
thin out by late afternoon with skies clearing into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  65  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   87  67  88  66 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   87  66  87  66 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   87  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   85  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  60  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  65  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  68  87  66 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06