851
FXUS64 KTSA 201847
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
147 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Rain showers continue to weaken early this afternoon across
portions of eastern Oklahoma. Residual cloud cover has kept
temperatures in check with upper 70s to lower 80s west of Highway
75.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Shower/thunderstorm chances will be on the increase tonight into
Sunday morning as a stronger disturbance rotates around base of
mid level trough with a semi-favorable upper jet couplet
developing. A very moist air-mass is expected with PWATs climbing
to around 2.00 inches tonight. With the slow cell motions,
including the potential for storms to back build, locally higher
rainfall of one to two inches will be likely in some locations.
With that said, the models continue to be all over the place
concerning QPF placement, therefore there remains a higher degree
of uncertainly with this forecast cycle. Also, given the more
scattered nature of these storms, some areas will likely receive
little rainfall (0.25 or less) through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning. Any
residual MCV development, coupled with secondary disturbance
approaching from the north, could allow for some additional
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Storm chances will
continue on Monday, however rainfall amounts are expected to be
less and more confined south of I-40

The overall synoptic scale pattern changes little through mid week
with upper troughing remaining over Oklahoma, extending northeast
through the Great Lakes region. At least daily rain chances will
persist, shifting into far SE OK/NW AR Thursday/Friday. Although
a slow warming trend is expected, high temperatures will likely
remain seasonable for this time of year, hopefully keeping us
well off the triple digit heat that occurred in some areas at the
start of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Much of the afternoon hours today will feature a mixture of clouds
and sun with SCT to occasionally BKN coverage near 5 kft with
additional high clouds at 15-25 kft. A few sprinkles will be
possible for TAF sites in eastern OK this afternoon. Winds will
mostly be less than 10 kts and out of the southeast.

Ceilings will develop and lower this evening and overnight,
possibly down to 3-4 kft by morning. Additionally, areas of
showers and storms will develop, with most TAFs carrying a 30%
chance of storms tonight. Storms will first move into northeast OK
this evening, spreading to other areas after midnight. The main
hazards will be lightning and heavy rain. Winds will mostly
remain light but could become gusty briefly by any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  81  67  86 /  60  50  20  20
FSM   70  84  69  87 /  20  40  30  50
MLC   69  83  67  84 /  40  50  30  40
BVO   64  82  64  85 /  60  40  10  20
FYV   65  79  64  84 /  30  50  30  50
BYV   65  80  64  83 /  30  50  30  50
MKO   69  81  67  84 /  40  50  30  30
MIO   66  81  64  84 /  50  50  20  30
F10   68  82  67  84 /  50  60  20  30
HHW   70  85  69  84 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06