575
FXUS64 KTSA 170832
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Widespread showers and storms are ongoing early this morning with
the strongest storms along and north of the stationary frontal
boundary extending across NE OK into far NW AR. A broad fetch of
warm moist advection is ongoing across the region downstream from
the remnant MCV located over SW KS. Expect the ongoing showers and
storms to continue to expand eastward through the early morning
hours with the heaviest rains eventually moving into NW AR
supporting the continuation of the watch area. A brief lull in
precip coverage is expected by early afternoon, however additional
storms are likely as the aforementioned MCV will move nearer the
region and the cold front and/or composite outflow boundary acts
to focus new storms. Higher storm chances by mid afternoon will be
along and south of Interstate 40 with these storms continuing into
the evening and possible overnight hours as the sfc boundary makes
slow progress southward. A few strong to severe storms along with
locally heavy rains will remain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into
Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast
area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday.
The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will
feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern
Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK
and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through
the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with
below normal temperatures will extend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Main impacts to terminals in the short term will be thunderstorms
during the overnight and morning hours. Storms are expected to
develop shortly across NE OK sites and spread into NW AR sites
through the night. Storm chances decrease to the south but will be
possible for those sites during the mid morning hours. Main
impacts will be reductions in visibility and lighting. Storms
should clear the area by late morning with lesser chances at more
thunderstorms development across SE OK and WC AR Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Winds will come around northerly behind a
frontal boundary, but will be noticeably lighter than recent
days.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  90  67 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   90  73  90  69 /  80  20  20   0
MLC   88  70  88  67 /  50  30  20   0
BVO   89  66  89  62 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   87  67  87  62 /  80  20  10   0
BYV   86  67  85  61 /  80  10  10   0
MKO   87  70  88  66 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   88  66  85  62 /  40   0   0   0
F10   88  69  88  65 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   93  71  85  69 /  50  50  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>064-066>070.

AR...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04