383
FXUS64 KTSA 120210
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Weak upper wave drifting E-SE withing fairly benign mid level
flow may touch off isolated showers and storms mainly after 06z
for parts of far NE OK and NW AR. Have opted to remove PoPs across
NE OK through 06z as latest hi-res guidance supports latest trends.
Overnight temperatures look reasonable so will leave them as they are.
Remaining first period elements will be lest as is.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Overall, expecting similar conditions tomorrow with mostly sunny
skies. There was enough potential for showers and storms to
introduce slight chance PoPs across Osage/ Pawnee counties late
tomorrow afternoon/ evening as another subtle disturbance moves
through the region. But otherwise, expect much of the FA to stay
dry. Otherwise, the main theme of the extended period continues to
be increasing potential for dangerous heat. Upper level ridging
currently centered on the intermountain west will expand eastward
over our area by this weekend & early next week. With southerly
flow resuming at the sfc promoting elevated dew points, heat
indices will likely require heat headlines late this weekend and
early next week. Opted to blend with NBM 90th percentile for dew
points during this period across NW AR where Beryl produced heavy
rainfall recently. By mid week or so, long range guidance
suggests a front will attempt to push into the region. If this
were to occur, would likely see some rain out of it as well as a
return to more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers/thunderstorms have develop along quasi-stationary
boundary located over east-central Kansas/west-central MO. A few
of these storms could move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening
with an isolated storm or two lingering overnight. Given the limited
storm coverage expected, including best chances remaining between
NE OK/NW AR TAF sites, will not include at this time. Gusty southwest
winds will develop at NE OK terminals Friday afternoon with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  98  76  98 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   73  97  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   72  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  99  71  99 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   67  94  69  95 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   69  94  68  96 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   72  94  72  95 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   71  94  73  95 /  20  20   0   0
F10   73  95  72  96 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   71  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...12