850
FXUS64 KTSA 171748
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024
MCV, currently located over north-central Oklahoma will drift
into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. This feature, coupled with
approaching cold front, should allow scattered storms to develop,
mainly south of I-40. A few marginally severe storms will be
possible across far southeast Oklahoma where instability will be
maximized, however high clouds will limit heating to some extent.
PWATs will remain near 2.00 inches along/south of front with
locally heavy rainfall likely with any of the stronger storms.
Current short term forecast generally on track but a few changes
possible into the afternoon as convective trends become more
certain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into
Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast
area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday.
The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will
feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern
Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK
and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through
the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with
below normal temperatures will extend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered showers will remain possible for the next few hours across
NE OK/NW AR TAF sites with brief MVFR ceilings. An isolated thunderstorm
or two could also impact KMLC/KFSM terminals through the afternoon and will
continue TEMPO groups at those locations. Otherwise, conditions will
slowly improve from north to south with clouds lifting in most areas
as frontal boundary pushes to near the Red River by 00Z. Low clouds
could persist or redevelop around KFSM this evening where the deeper
moisture may linger before drier air filters in early Thursday
morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  90  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   73  90  69  89 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   70  88  67  88 /  30  20   0   0
BVO   66  89  62  88 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   67  87  62  86 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   67  85  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   70  88  66  87 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   66  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  88  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   71  85  69  86 /  50  40   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12