904
FXUS64 KTSA 171926
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
226 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

MCV continues to slowly drift SSE toward southeast OK this
afternoon. Cluster of showers has been persistent in the vicinity
of this feature and this trend will likely continue through the
evening. Extensive cloud cover has kept temps considerably cooler
today, and has also limited instability somewhat. Should still
ultimately see at least scattered storms develop south of I-40
into this evening, with perhaps a few marginally severe storms.
Also, with PWAT values analyzed near 2 inches in the vicinity of
the MCV, pockets of heavy rainfall may occur. Overall expected
trend will be for precip chances to move southward with time
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Aside from some lingering chance of showers across far southeast
sections of the forecast area Thursday, a quiet stretch of
weather expected through Friday with below normal temperatures as
a drier airmass moves in behind the clod front. The anticipated
pattern will begin to favor a return to periodic thunderstorm
chances beginning Saturday as longwave troughing pattern
establishes over the plains into the first half of next week. The
severe weather threat should remain low, but some potential for
locally heavy rainfall will exist. This will also keep
temperatures below average for several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered showers will remain possible for the next few hours across
NE OK/NW AR TAF sites with brief MVFR ceilings. An isolated thunderstorm
or two could also impact KMLC/KFSM terminals through the afternoon and will
continue TEMPO groups at those locations. Otherwise, conditions will
slowly improve from north to south with clouds lifting in most areas
as frontal boundary pushes to near the Red River by 00Z. Low clouds
could persist or redevelop around KFSM this evening where the deeper
moisture may linger before drier air filters in early Thursday
morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  87  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   73  88  68  89 /  40  20   0   0
MLC   70  86  66  89 /  50  20   0   0
BVO   65  86  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  85  60  85 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   65  84  61  83 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   70  87  64  88 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   65  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  87  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   71  83  68  88 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12