Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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139 FXUS64 KTSA 041900 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Both excessive heat and thunderstorm/severe weather concerns will continue into the evening hours of your Independence Day for most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Regarding the heat, the existing Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will be left alone for now, with most of the area seeing heat index values in the triple digits. It remains expected that portions of the advisory and/or warning may be able to be cancelled early, depending on how early thunderstorm development occurs this afternoon/evening. Now for the thunderstorm and severe weather expectations, the overall thinking from earlier today remains largely intact, with CAMs consistently showing development mid to late this afternoon along a pre-frontal wind shift, followed by early to mid evening development to the north along the cold front, which will sweep southward overnight. A peek at the structure of the CU out our west windows reinforces the likelihood of the aforementioned mid to late afternoon development. DCAPE and forecast soundings remain supportive of a largely damaging wind threat, although effective bulk shear values and high CAPE could also lead to a hail threat. Overall, the severe weather threat should decrease toward early Friday morning, although the lightning threat will not be as quick to wane. Heavy rainfall remains a concern as well given the high precipitable water values present. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Much more pleasant conditions are expected to persist from tomorrow well into next week in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal passage, with temperatures nearer to seasonal normals and lower dew points. Showers and thunderstorms should linger to some extent post-daybreak tomorrow to the south of I-40, with a likelihood of little to no severe weather potential remaining. Dry weather should extend from tomorrow night through Saturday night, but the dry period will likely be short lived, given persistent troughing expected to be in the vicinity allowing for multiple disturbances to move through the area. In addition, moisture should steadily climb, especially in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, through next week. The combination of the increased moisture and upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through at least mid week. Sunday night and into Monday remains the most likely time frame for extensive thunderstorms from MCS activity, including some severe weather and heavy rain/flooding potential, although those details remain somewhat uncertain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are expected to spread over the CWA this afternoon as a surface boundary moves over Northeast Oklahoma. Convection initiation remains forecast along and near this boundary starting mid afternoon and spreading east southeast through the region this evening/tonight. Have added VCTS and Tempo groups for timing to all TAF sites. Within the convection will be the potential for gusty to strong winds...locally heavy rainfall and brief MVFR conditions. A cold front will then push through the CWA this evening/tonight behind the initial line of convection with additional showers/storms possible into the overnight hours from north to south. For now have added VCTS/VCSH for timing of this second round of precip. Some scattered/broken MVFR conditions are possible again with the front. Behind the front...scattered to broken high clouds are forecast into Friday morning. There are some indications that some patchy areas of reduced visibility may develop early Friday morning near the Kansas and Missouri borders...though for now will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Winds through the period start out south to southwest...become variable with the precip and then shift out of the west to north behind the cold front tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 70 90 66 93 / 60 10 0 0 FSM 75 92 68 94 / 60 10 0 0 MLC 72 88 65 92 / 70 30 0 10 BVO 65 88 61 92 / 50 0 0 10 FYV 69 88 62 92 / 60 10 0 0 BYV 69 86 62 90 / 70 0 0 0 MKO 70 87 65 90 / 70 10 0 0 MIO 66 85 63 90 / 70 0 0 0 F10 70 86 65 90 / 70 20 0 0 HHW 73 87 68 89 / 50 30 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063- 064-068-069-075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...20