712
FXUS64 KTSA 150516
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light southerly wind overnight as low pressure is centered over
southwestern and central Kansas. A few passing high clouds expected
across the area tonight, otherwise skies will be clear. Seasonably
warm overnight temperatures expected, which will set the stage for a
hot day on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the year thus far,
with afternoon high temperatures from the upper 90s to near 105
along with breezy south winds. Afternoon heat index values will
reach near or above 105 in all areas, so have issued a heat
advisory for the entire forecast area for Monday afternoon. Parts
of northeast Oklahoma will be near excessive heat warning
criteria, and this area will need to be monitored for a potential
upgrade to a warning.

Tuesday will be another hot day, but a weak frontal boundary will
be approaching from the north. This may result in a bit more
cloudiness, and some potential for late day convection near the
Kansas and Missouri borders. This may hold temperatures down a bit
in northern areas Tuesday afternoon.

Shower and storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags south across
the area. Rain chances continue into Thursday, especially south
where the frontal boundary may still be nearby. Overall, the
models have sped up the progression of the front and associated
rain chances, so have adjusted pops accordingly from those
suggested by the NBM.

A welcome break from the heat will occur from Wednesday through
next weekend, with below normal temperatures expected. Rain
chances will start to increase again later next weekend as an
upper level trough persists over the area, but models differ on
the details, so the chances will remain low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue with periodic gusty winds from late
morning through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 102  78  89 /   0  10  20  40
FSM   79 101  78  95 /   0  10  10  40
MLC   79  98  76  94 /   0  10   0  30
BVO   77 100  73  87 /   0  20  30  50
FYV   75  98  73  90 /   0  10  20  50
BYV   76 100  73  88 /   0  20  30  60
MKO   78 100  75  92 /   0  10  10  40
MIO   78  99  73  87 /   0  20  30  50
F10   78 100  75  92 /   0  10  10  40
HHW   76  97  76  97 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07