511
FXUS64 KTSA 151945
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
245 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Another warm night is on tap tonight, with persistent south winds
helping to hold overnight low temperatures up in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. At least some chance will exist for elevated convection
to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma late tonight as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

One more hot day will occur Tuesday, and have issued a heat
advisory for the entire forecast area. Once again, parts of the
area may need to be upgraded to a warning, but concerns about the
extent of morning cloud cover and potential elevated convection
preclude a warning at this time. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening as a frontal boundary moves south into the area, with a
few severe storms possible across northwest Arkansas into
northeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather
threat.

Shower and storm chances will continue Wednesday and possibly into
Thursday in southern parts of the area as the frontal boundary
continues south across the area. Much cooler temperatures will
follow the passage of the front, with below normal temperatures
expected from Wednesday through the weekend into early next week.
Rain chances will increase again over the weekend into early next
week as upper level impulses rotate south around the main upper
trough that will reside near or just east of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Some
high-based convection over southern KS later tonight may drift
toward NE OK early Wed morning, but most likely impact would be an
increase in mid clouds through the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 101  75  88 /   0  20  30  30
FSM   79  99  78  92 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   78  98  76  92 /   0  10  20  40
BVO   78  99  71  86 /  20  20  40  40
FYV   76  96  73  87 /   0  20  30  40
BYV   77  96  72  88 /   0  30  30  50
MKO   78  99  74  89 /   0  20  20  40
MIO   79  97  72  85 /  20  30  40  40
F10   78 100  75  90 /   0  10  20  40
HHW   77  97  76  94 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-058-
     059-063>065-068-069-072>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ055>057-060>062-066-067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14