247
FXUS64 KTSA 160540
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Surface pressure gradient over the area should once again result in a
light south wind maintaining itself much of the night. Expect some
mid cloud to develop over nern OK later tonight, which will also tend
to hold temps up some. Guidance continues to suggest some potential
for widely scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms late tonight
developing from this mid level cloud deck. Convection over far ern
CO/wrn KS also expected to move across Kansas tonight, with outflow
from that possibly reaching nern OK very late tonight. All in all,
ongoing forecast trending well, and reflects low chances of late
night high-based convection nern OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

One more hot day will occur Tuesday, and have issued a heat
advisory for the entire forecast area. Once again, parts of the
area may need to be upgraded to a warning, but concerns about the
extent of morning cloud cover and potential elevated convection
preclude a warning at this time. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening as a frontal boundary moves south into the area, with a
few severe storms possible across northwest Arkansas into
northeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather
threat.

Shower and storm chances will continue Wednesday and possibly into
Thursday in southern parts of the area as the frontal boundary
continues south across the area. Much cooler temperatures will
follow the passage of the front, with below normal temperatures
expected from Wednesday through the weekend into early next week.
Rain chances will increase again over the weekend into early next
week as upper level impulses rotate south around the main upper
trough that will reside near or just east of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered mid level cloud cover will increase over northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites tonight, with some
isolated showers or storms possibly developing early this morning.
Chances look too low currently to mention in TAFs but could be
added in as trends evolve through the night. Otherwise breezy
southerly winds will increase again during the morning and
afternoon hours with them lessening somewhat as a boundary
approaches northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will become possible along this boundary
across NE OK and NW AR sites from mid afternoon through the
evening hours. Reduced VSBYs will be the main impact to terminals along
with gusty winds with the strongest storms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  75  88  69 /  20  30  30  20
FSM   99  78  92  73 /  10  20  50  50
MLC   98  76  92  71 /  10  20  40  40
BVO   99  71  86  64 /  20  40  40  10
FYV   96  73  87  66 /  20  30  40  40
BYV   96  72  88  66 /  30  30  50  40
MKO   99  74  89  69 /  20  20  40  40
MIO   97  72  85  65 /  30  40  40  10
F10  100  75  90  69 /  10  20  40  30
HHW   97  76  94  71 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04