196
FXUS64 KTSA 160814
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Subtle vorticity max located in SW KS and downstream low level jet
extending through NW OK have aided expanding convection from
western OK through south central KS. This forcing regime will
slowly spread eastward along the corridor of mid level moisture
through the day with a gradual weakening of the low level winds.
Early day scattered convection will likely spread into NE OK with
decreasing coverage of showers and storms into early afternoon.
It is possible the elevated convection never really dissipates
this afternoon while isolated to scattered storms become possible
along a weak wind shift and/or differential heating boundaries.
Any late afternoon storms will be capable of locally damaging
winds given expected instability and deeply mixed boundary layer.
Uncertainty is high regarding the extent and duration of cloud
cover through the day which will impact temps to some degree,
however another hot and humid afternoon remains likely and the
current heat advisory fits the most likely afternoon conditions. A
scenario of lesser clouds by mid afternoon could support portions
of the advisory being upgraded to a heat warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

While the exact trend in storm coverage and timing is uncertain
tonight through Wednesday, the idea of increasing coverage of
showers and storms does appear likely especially late tonight into
the day Wednesday. The combination of a well defined shortwave
trough and associated cold front passing through the region will
provide the needed lift with a corridor of deep moisture along the
frontal zone supporting the higher precip coverage. A few strong
to severe storms may be possible along with locally heavy rains.
Notably cooler temperatures arrive once the front passes with
below normal temperatures overspreading the region. The pattern
of ridging aloft through the western CONUS and downstream
troughing extending through the southern Plains appears likely to
persist into early next week. Daily shower and thunderstorm
chances along with below normal temperatures likely persist from
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered mid level cloud cover will increase over northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites tonight, with some
isolated showers or storms possibly developing early this morning.
Chances look too low currently to mention in TAFs but could be
added in as trends evolve through the night. Otherwise breezy
southerly winds will increase again during the morning and
afternoon hours with them lessening somewhat as a boundary
approaches northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will become possible along this boundary
across NE OK and NW AR sites from mid afternoon through the
evening hours. Reduced VSBYs will be the main impact to terminals along
with gusty winds with the strongest storms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  76  89  69 /  30  60  40  20
FSM   99  80  94  73 /  10  30  60  50
MLC   99  77  92  71 /  10  30  40  40
BVO   99  72  87  64 /  30  60  40  10
FYV   98  73  89  66 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   98  72  87  66 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   97  76  89  69 /  20  30  40  40
MIO   97  72  86  65 /  30  60  50  10
F10   99  76  89  68 /  20  30  40  30
HHW   98  78  94  71 /   0  20  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04