999
FXUS64 KTSA 161115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Subtle vorticity max located in SW KS and downstream low level jet
extending through NW OK have aided expanding convection from
western OK through south central KS. This forcing regime will
slowly spread eastward along the corridor of mid level moisture
through the day with a gradual weakening of the low level winds.
Early day scattered convection will likely spread into NE OK with
decreasing coverage of showers and storms into early afternoon.
It is possible the elevated convection never really dissipates
this afternoon while isolated to scattered storms become possible
along a weak wind shift and/or differential heating boundaries.
Any late afternoon storms will be capable of locally damaging
winds given expected instability and deeply mixed boundary layer.
Uncertainty is high regarding the extent and duration of cloud
cover through the day which will impact temps to some degree,
however another hot and humid afternoon remains likely and the
current heat advisory fits the most likely afternoon conditions. A
scenario of lesser clouds by mid afternoon could support portions
of the advisory being upgraded to a heat warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

While the exact trend in storm coverage and timing is uncertain
tonight through Wednesday, the idea of increasing coverage of
showers and storms does appear likely especially late tonight into
the day Wednesday. The combination of a well defined shortwave
trough and associated cold front passing through the region will
provide the needed lift with a corridor of deep moisture along the
frontal zone supporting the higher precip coverage. A few strong
to severe storms may be possible along with locally heavy rains.
Notably cooler temperatures arrive once the front passes with
below normal temperatures overspreading the region. The pattern
of ridging aloft through the western CONUS and downstream
troughing extending through the southern Plains appears likely to
persist into early next week. Daily shower and thunderstorm
chances along with below normal temperatures likely persist from
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A frontal boundary will drop into the region today, bringing
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, first across NE OK sites and
then for all sites later this evening and overnight. Main impacts
will be reduced visibility, and lightning within thunderstorms.
VFR ceilings are expected to prevail, even in thunderstorms,
though isolated MVFR cigs could occur overnight. Gusty southerly
winds this morning and afternoon should lessen near the boundary
and go light and variable before becoming northerly late tonight
across NE OK.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  76  89  69 /  30  60  40  20
FSM   99  80  94  73 /  10  30  60  50
MLC   99  77  92  71 /  10  30  40  40
BVO   99  72  87  64 /  50  60  40  10
FYV   98  73  89  66 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   98  72  87  66 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   97  76  89  69 /  20  30  40  40
MIO   97  72  86  65 /  30  60  50  10
F10   99  76  89  68 /  20  30  40  30
HHW   98  78  94  71 /   0  20  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04