438
FXUS64 KTSA 061718
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

No changes to the forecast planned for today as broad surface
ridging dominates the area through this evening. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions along with light winds will be the story
through the afternoon hours. More sunshine today will allow
temperatures to warm several degrees warmer than yesterday as
highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s for most
locations. Continued dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices
down though for today, making for a relatively comfortable
afternoon by July standards.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Longwave trough axis remains over the plains into the early part
of next week at least, resulting in a more unsettled pattern with
temperatures remaining a little below average. Some high plains
convection later this afternoon is expected to remain to our
northwest overnight, though some lingering activity may brush
northern areas Sunday morning. More robust convection continues to
be depicted later Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave
rotates through the longwave trough into the plains. At this time
the bulk of the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat still
looks to remain to our west, but the exact evolution of this
remains in question.

Beryl is still expected to make landfall along the southern TX
Gulf Coast Monday, with latest NHC guidance showing a slight
northeast shift in the track. Consensus remains that the system
will lift northeast, but may pass close enough to bring a heavy
rainfall threat into far southeast OK and western AR by Tuesday.

Beyond that the upper ridge is expected to remain to our west
through the end of the week, with weak troughing over the plains.
This should keep at least isolated storm chances through Friday
with temperatues remaining near or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period for most sites.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will dominate through this
evening. A thunderstorm complex could approach northeast Oklahoma
toward the end of the period with increasing mid to high cloud
cover and storms possibly affecting KBVO before the end of the
TAF period. At this time chances look to hold off at other NE OK
sites until after this valid TAF period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  69  84 /   0  40  70  50
FSM   71  96  73  86 /   0  10  40  70
MLC   70  92  69  84 /   0  20  60  70
BVO   66  87  66  84 /   0  50  70  50
FYV   68  94  68  84 /   0  10  50  80
BYV   68  95  68  84 /   0  10  40  80
MKO   68  92  68  83 /   0  20  60  60
MIO   67  90  66  83 /   0  30  60  60
F10   68  92  66  83 /   0  30  70  60
HHW   70  92  69  83 /   0  20  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04