182
FXUS64 KTSA 161931
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

An apparent MCV continues to move across southeast KS this
afternoon and continues to force widely scattered high-based
showers across parts of northeast OK. Also seeing considerable
high clouds across northwest AR, but despite that a corridor of
modest instability exists south of a frontal boundary extending
across southern KS/MO. Overall thinking remains that this front
will eventually become active later this afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms, with potential for damaging downburst winds given
analyzed DCAPE values of 1000-1500 across this region.

We may see a lull in activity for a time late this evening,
however some renewed development will remain possible late tonight
into early Wednesday morning within the frontal zone as it
gradually pushes south. Severe threat is expected to be less with
any later round of storms, though locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Storm chances will persist while trending southward into
Thursday as the front continues a southward push. This will also
mark the beginning of a prolonged stretch of below normal
temperatures that will persist into at least early next week. The
pattern of high amplitude ridging in the western CONUS and
persistent downstream trough over the plains will result in
essentially daily rain and thunderstorm chances, with a possible
uptick in coverage over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mid/high clouds continue to increase across northeast Oklahoma early
this afternoon ahead of MCV feature. Surface low, currently located
over southeast Kansas will continue sag south with frontal boundary.
Scattered storms are expected to develop across far northeast Oklahoma
by late afternoon, potentially spreading into northwest Arkansas by
early this evening. Lingering shower/thunderstorm chances will persist
overnight into Wednesday morning along/near frontal boundary. In general,
VFR conditions expected outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  88  70  90 /  60  40  10  10
FSM   79  92  73  89 /  30  50  50  30
MLC   77  90  70  88 /  20  30  40  20
BVO   71  90  64  89 /  60  40  10   0
FYV   73  87  67  86 /  60  60  30  20
BYV   72  86  66  85 /  70  70  30  10
MKO   76  88  69  88 /  40  40  30  10
MIO   72  86  65  85 /  60  50  10   0
F10   74  88  68  88 /  30  40  30  10
HHW   78  95  70  86 /  10  30  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>069-071-
     073.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ070-
     072-074>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12