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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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659 FXUS63 KTOP 171719 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and storms increase Sunday (15-30% chance) and Sunday night into early Monday (20-45% chance). - A quieter pattern sets up Monday into the middle of next week with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft resides across the Central Plains this morning between a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the Desert Southwest. Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the 60s. Some patchy, shallow ground fog is possible in low-lying areas and river valleys, but will burn off quickly with sunrise. Surface high pressure will extend into eastern Kansas with light east-northeasterly winds through the day. Mostly sunny skies and mixing to around 850mb will translate to highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. There is a very small (<10%) chance for sprinkles to impact far northeast Kansas this evening, but abundant low-level dry air should evaporate this precipitation before it reaches the ground. A couple waves of energy round the ridge on Sunday with ascent from the passing waves along with isentropic ascent generating showers and thunderstorms. CAMs vary on the timing and location of the passing wave and associated storms, but confidence has increased in showers and storms impacting the area through the day on Sunday. Instability isn`t very robust (<1000 J/kg), but still sufficient when coupled with effective shear around 40kts to support a strong storm or two. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop Sunday night into Monday as another wave passes and frontogenesis around 700mb increases. Uncertain remains in how this round of showers and storms plays out, but limited instability will likely hinder any potential for severe weather. Guidance shows continued waves of energy riding around the ridge through Tuesday night which could lead to small chances for precipitation across the area. Ridging builds overhead by Wednesday, leading to a quieter and warmer stretch of weather. NBM temperatures remain relatively subdued for the strength of the ridge that moves overhead as low-level winds may remain more southeasterly and keep highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Temperatures could be few degrees warmer than forecast if low-level flow becomes more southerly and WAA increases. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to persist. Probabilities for precip are only around 20% towards the end of the forecast period so will not include a mention of precip at this time. Will not mention ground fog since high clouds are forecast to be increasing towards sunrise. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Wolters