659
FXUS63 KTOP 171719
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms increase Sunday (15-30% chance) and
  Sunday night into early Monday (20-45% chance).

- A quieter pattern sets up Monday into the middle of next week
  with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft resides across the Central Plains this
morning between a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the
Desert Southwest. Clear skies and light winds have allowed
temperatures to fall into the 60s. Some patchy, shallow ground fog
is possible in low-lying areas and river valleys, but will burn off
quickly with sunrise. Surface high pressure will extend into eastern
Kansas with light east-northeasterly winds through the day.
Mostly sunny skies and mixing to around 850mb will translate to
highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. There is a very small
(<10%) chance for sprinkles to impact far northeast Kansas this
evening, but abundant low-level dry air should evaporate this
precipitation before it reaches the ground.

A couple waves of energy round the ridge on Sunday with ascent from
the passing waves along with isentropic ascent generating showers
and thunderstorms. CAMs vary on the timing and location of the
passing wave and associated storms, but confidence has increased in
showers and storms impacting the area through the day on Sunday.
Instability isn`t very robust (<1000 J/kg), but still sufficient
when coupled with effective shear around 40kts to support a strong
storm or two. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop
Sunday night into Monday as another wave passes and frontogenesis
around 700mb increases. Uncertain remains in how this round of
showers and storms plays out, but limited instability will likely
hinder any potential for severe weather.

Guidance shows continued waves of energy riding around the ridge
through Tuesday night which could lead to small chances for
precipitation across the area. Ridging builds overhead by Wednesday,
leading to a quieter and warmer stretch of weather. NBM temperatures
remain relatively subdued for the strength of the ridge that moves
overhead as low-level winds may remain more southeasterly and keep
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Temperatures could be few
degrees warmer than forecast if low-level flow becomes more
southerly and WAA increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to persist. Probabilities for precip
are only around 20% towards the end of the forecast period so
will not include a mention of precip at this time. Will not
mention ground fog since high clouds are forecast to be
increasing towards sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters