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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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884 FXUS63 KTOP 172309 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are possible (30 to 50 percent) Sunday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong. - Below normal temperatures are expected to start off the workweek. - The forecast has highs back into the 90s heading into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 An upper ridge remained centered over the southern high plains per the 19Z water vapor imagery. The ridge axis extended north over the northern plains and a closed upper low was noted off the coast of OR. A shortwave looked to be lifting northeast through UT. Surface obs showed weak high pressure ridging into northeast KS from the north. Main challenge with the forecast is timing the weak disturbances rounding the upper ridge. And then there may not even be a wave spark convection per the isolated storms across central NEB which appear to be a result of some modest warm air advection in the mid levels. The 12Z operational models are converging on a common idea of a shortwave diving southeast Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a good response to this wave seen in the isentropic surfaces with increasing lift and saturation in mid levels. So confidence in isolated to scattered showers and storms is increasing and have POPs in the 30 to 50 percent range by Sunday evening. NAM and RAP forecast soundings suggest elevated CAPE values could be around 1000 J/kg. Combined with bulk shear around 50KT with effectively a straight line hodograph, there is some potential for organized updrafts and severe storms. By Monday models build a stronger surface high into the central plains with some drier air. This brings into question whether there is enough moisture for precip Tuesday night and the operational models have backed off on QPF. This has resulted in the NBM coming in with POPs less than 10 percent for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Then the upper ridge axis begins to slide east over the central plains limiting the chances for shortwave energy to affect the area. So the only chances for precip in the forecast is on Sunday and Sunday night. The stronger surface ridge Monday should bring below normal temps for the first of the workweek. Then temps are forecast to warm as the upper ridge moves overhead and southerly return flow redevelops. This should push highs back into the 90s by Saturday. The NBM reflects these trends nicely and have not made and changes. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR at terminals with light easterly winds overnight and increasing high clouds by sunrise, limiting overall fog development at KTOP. Added a mention of VCSH aft 17Z at all sites with some uncertainty on timing and coverage of showers and isolated TSRA during the afternoon. Mid clouds around 10 kft are most likely with showers given lack of low level moisture with this system. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Prieto