163
FXUS63 KTOP 141404
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
904 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms possible (20-25%) through the early
morning hours today.

- Dangerous heat continues through Monday with high temperatures
eclipsing triple digits for most and heat indices pushing 110
degrees.

- Precipitation and relief from the heat come Tuesday as a frontal
boundary moves through the area. High temperatures in the 80s can be
expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An apparent gravity wave from last night`s convection across the
northern plains has made it further south than any of the
guidance had progged. Have been trying to figure how this may
alter the forecast and there are some cooler temperatures in
central NEB. But if the northerly winds act to keep temps
cooler, they would likely also limit mixing and keep dewpoints
higher. So the overall impact may be limited. Ultimately I
expect this boundary to wash out mid-day. There is still good
insolation behind this wave and the overall affect may be
negligible. So will not make any significant changes to the
temps at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery showed a few MCSs
that have developed across the northern Plains and into the Great
Lakes region with large upper-level ridging positioned over the 4-
corners region. Another weak wave rounding the ridge axis is noted
moving out of central Nebraska and has led to mid-level cloud
development with a few showers and storms developing across
north/northwestern Missouri. As this weak wave continues to push
southeast, low-level isentropic lift paired with increasing PVA
could create some isolated to scattered showers and storms across
eastern Kansas. Wind shear remains weak across the area, but with
steep ML lapse rates and MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg, a few elevated
storms that are able to develop could intensify quick, mainly only
posing a risk for heavy rainfall and at worst, small hail. Overall,
confidence is still not overly high in the coverage of
showers/storms, especially with the very warm EML overspreading the
area. Maintained 20-25 percent PoPs through 9 AM, as isentropic
ascent begins to break down.

Heat today and Monday continue to be the main hazards across the
area. Guidance still keeps the upper-level ridge over top of the
central Plains, promoting deep afternoon mixing and persistent
WAA. Expect temperatures today to warm into the low to mid 100s
across most of the area with some spots in far eastern Kansas
topping out near 100 degrees. Temperatures Monday will not be
any more pleasant, but a few degrees warmer and topping out
again in the mid 100s. Some in central Kansas may even see
surface temperatures push 110 degrees. Heat indices both today
and tomorrow afternoon will range from 103-110 degrees creating
ripe conditions for heat-related illnesses to occur. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect through Monday afternoon. Make sure
to stay hydrated if planning on being outdoors between 10am-6pm
and if at all possible, utilize shade as much as possible.

By Monday evening, guidance continues to agree on a cold front
beginning to make its way into northern Kansas, ushering in cooler
temperatures for the remainder of the week. Precipitation chances
will also increase along this south-moving boundary Monday evening
through Wednesday. Initially, guidance does not produce much QPF
along the boundary Monday evening, waiting until Tuesday into
Wednesday to develop most of the QPF across the area. This may be in
part to the very warm mid-level temperatures helping to inhibit
convective development as well as lack of mid-level support. As
vorticity and mid-level lift advects around the ridge out west
Tuesday into Wednesday, precipitation chances should increase
along the surface and 850mb boundary. Deterministic guidance
progs the surface boundary to stall across southeastern Kansas
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning with the 850mb boundary
situated a bit further north across east-central Kansas. With a
nocturnal LLJ setting up near-perpendicular to the frontal
boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday and PWATs ranging from
1.5-2.25", will need to monitor for the threat for heavy
rainfall and flooding over this timeframe.

By Wednesday afternoon and evening, precipitation should have come
to an end for most with surface ridging building in from the north.
A cooler airmass will filter into the area for the remainder of the
week yielding afternoon high temperatures in the 80s with
mostly dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR TAFs are expected to continue through the period at all
terminals. Elevated showers and thunderstorms that have
developed over the past few hours will persist into the mid
morning hours before skies clear for the afternoon. Winds will
increase out of the southwest, sustained around 10 mph with an
occasional gust to 20 mph. Gusts should decrease around sunset
this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer