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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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127 FXUS63 KTOP 120544 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1244 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Maintaining a forecast with overall below normal high and low temperatures through Tuesday. - Trend with mainly overnight through early morning off and on precipitation chances continues as well into the upcoming work week. - Temperatures trend back to around normal by mid week through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 This afternoon and small area of convection was moving across parts of central and northeast Kansas in a region of 850mb-700mb warm and moisture advection. A weak 700 mb trough was moving into central Kansas at 19Z. Expect the isolated convection to move eastward through the rest of the afternoon and should move out by early evening. Attention then turns to rain chances for tonight. Convection is forecast to develop across the high Plains of western Nebraska into northwest Kansas this evening. Mid afternoon water vapor satellite had a shortwave at mid levels moving across Wyoming and into South Dakota while further south moisture was moving around the upper high over Texas and across Kansas. Moisture will continue to advect through the night and with moisture transport focusing into east central Kansas into Missouri will promote the possibility of locally heavy rainfall later tonight. The storms from the high Plains this evening are forecast to track across Nebraska and affect northeast Kansas late tonight and additional convection may develop within a zone of thermal and moisture advection across southern and east central Kansas. Therefore have maintained the higher precipitation probabilities for these areas tonight. On Monday, the morning convection should move out by mid to late morning with some clearing in the afternoon hours. Mid level ridge builds into central Kansas with temperatures warming back into the 80s, while far northeast Kansas will see highs in the 70s. The next chance for convection will be Monday night as another cluster of storms develops across the high Plains and then propagates eastward across the state. The midlevel high builds northward into Kansas Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a trough over the western States and eastern Pacific. Additional perturbations and the low level jet will lead to additional nocturnal convection Tuesday night and Wednesday night as the monsoonal moisture remains across northern Kansas. Wednesday night will see a mid level trough move across the Plains with a frontal boundary sliding into northeast Kansas by Thursday morning. Another mid level wave Thursday night may bring another small chance (20-25%) chance for convection, but models begin to differ on timing and level of forcing across northeast Kansas. A relatively dry period is expected next weekend. Temperatures rebound to around normal for mid august on Wednesday with high around 90 and then are expected for the latter half of the week as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible tonight, especially for the Topeka airports. IFR CIGS are then expected to settle in for a few hours Tuesday morning before scattering out early afternoon. Winds remain light at less than 10 kts through the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Teefey