682
FXUS63 KTOP 121735
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There are multiple opportunities for showers/storms in the
 forecast through the first half of the workweek.

-Temps warm back into the 90s on Wednesday as a warm front moves
 through the region.

-A few severe storms could occur Wednesday evening and night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Early this morning, sfc obs show an inverted trough axis across
northeast KS with low pressure centered near far southwestern
OK. Dew points have steadily increased since midday yesterday,
now in the upper 60s and low 70s south of I-70. Scattered
showers and storms were ongoing across the region early today
in response to some isentropic ascent. Have associated POPs
continuing through the morning, but gradually decreasing from
west to east after 12Z. Low stratus could hang around much of
the day, with some clearing expected later this afternoon. Have
kept temperatures around the 50th percentile for today, putting
highs mainly in the mid 80s.

This evening, CAMs show a complex of storms developing across the
high plains of eastern CO/western KS with a mid-level shortwave
trough and associated vort max becoming more pronounced on the
northern periphery of the upper ridge. Elevated thunderstorms are
expected to expand eastward tonight where isentropic ascent
increases again in southern KS. Storms should track into the
forecast area late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a nearly saturated column with pwats around 2.0
inches, and large amounts of mid-level ascent. Thus, confidence
is high in this round of rain impacting the area. Current QPF
is highest in southern areas where around an inch of rain could
fall. Have kept temperatures mainly in the 70s due to the
morning precipitation and lingering cloud cover into the
afternoon hours.

Showers and storms will again be possible, especially in far
northeast KS Tuesday night where ascent associated with low
level WAA will once again occur near/north of a warm front.
Storms should move north and east of the area as the warm front
progresses into Iowa on Wednesday. Within the warm sector south
of the boundary, temperatures will warm back into the 90s with
dew points reaching the mid 70s for some. These conditions will
combine to create heat index values around 105 degrees, especially
for locations along and south of I-70. In the meantime, a broad
mid-level trough axis with embedded shortwaves will move from
the Rockies into the High Plains late in the day. This could
lead to more storms during the evening and overnight hours.
Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern with storms that
develop during this timeframe given the hot and humid air mass
in place.

Rain chances become less certain later in the week with greater
spread in model solutions. Temps look to stay near average with
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s/low 70s early
Thursday, but slightly cooler in the mid 60s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Morning MVFR conditions quickly clearing to VFR this afternoon.
Another round of stratus and rain (IFR) is likely tonight,
generally after 12z. Thunderstorm chances/confidence are highest
at KMHK. While some storms may impact the Topeka terminals,
confidence isn`t high enough at this point to mention in the
TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Jones