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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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682 FXUS63 KTOP 121735 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -There are multiple opportunities for showers/storms in the forecast through the first half of the workweek. -Temps warm back into the 90s on Wednesday as a warm front moves through the region. -A few severe storms could occur Wednesday evening and night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Early this morning, sfc obs show an inverted trough axis across northeast KS with low pressure centered near far southwestern OK. Dew points have steadily increased since midday yesterday, now in the upper 60s and low 70s south of I-70. Scattered showers and storms were ongoing across the region early today in response to some isentropic ascent. Have associated POPs continuing through the morning, but gradually decreasing from west to east after 12Z. Low stratus could hang around much of the day, with some clearing expected later this afternoon. Have kept temperatures around the 50th percentile for today, putting highs mainly in the mid 80s. This evening, CAMs show a complex of storms developing across the high plains of eastern CO/western KS with a mid-level shortwave trough and associated vort max becoming more pronounced on the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to expand eastward tonight where isentropic ascent increases again in southern KS. Storms should track into the forecast area late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated column with pwats around 2.0 inches, and large amounts of mid-level ascent. Thus, confidence is high in this round of rain impacting the area. Current QPF is highest in southern areas where around an inch of rain could fall. Have kept temperatures mainly in the 70s due to the morning precipitation and lingering cloud cover into the afternoon hours. Showers and storms will again be possible, especially in far northeast KS Tuesday night where ascent associated with low level WAA will once again occur near/north of a warm front. Storms should move north and east of the area as the warm front progresses into Iowa on Wednesday. Within the warm sector south of the boundary, temperatures will warm back into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid 70s for some. These conditions will combine to create heat index values around 105 degrees, especially for locations along and south of I-70. In the meantime, a broad mid-level trough axis with embedded shortwaves will move from the Rockies into the High Plains late in the day. This could lead to more storms during the evening and overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern with storms that develop during this timeframe given the hot and humid air mass in place. Rain chances become less certain later in the week with greater spread in model solutions. Temps look to stay near average with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s/low 70s early Thursday, but slightly cooler in the mid 60s by Friday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Morning MVFR conditions quickly clearing to VFR this afternoon. Another round of stratus and rain (IFR) is likely tonight, generally after 12z. Thunderstorm chances/confidence are highest at KMHK. While some storms may impact the Topeka terminals, confidence isn`t high enough at this point to mention in the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Jones