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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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127 FXUS63 KTOP 121956 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 256 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms with two to three inch rainfall rates are possible late tonight into Tuesday morning and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. -Temperatures rise into the 90s Wednesday as a warm front lifts through the region. -A few storms could produce marginally severe hail or wind Tuesday night or Wednesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Another complex of storms is favored to develop across central KS late tonight as a mid-level shortwave trough moves across the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to push eastward into our area tonight after midnight and exit the area late Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated column with pwats around 2.0 inches, and ample mid-level ascent. Thus, confidence is high in this round of rain impacting the area and heavy rainfall rates of two to three inches an hour. Forecast rain totals are highest south of I-70 where over an inch of rain is favored. Showers and storms will are possible again across far northeast KS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area. The window of storm potential is rather narrow as storms should rapidly move north and east of the area as the warm front progresses into Nebraska/Iowa. If storms do form along the front they could be marginally severe with some hail and gusty winds. We will reside squarely within the warm sector Wednesday and temperatures will rise back into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid 70s. These conditions will combine to create heat index values around 105 degrees, especially for locations along and south of I-70. Another mid- level wave will move across the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface trough is favored to develop ahead of this wave. This could lead to more storms during the evening and overnight hours Wednesday. In addition to high rain rates and the threat for isolated flooding, damaging wind gusts and hail could be a concern with storms that develop during this timeframe given the hot and humid air mass in place. Rain chances become less certain later in the week with greater spread in model solutions. Temps look to stay near average with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s/low 70s early Thursday, but slightly cooler in the mid 60s by Friday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Morning MVFR conditions quickly clearing to VFR this afternoon. Another round of stratus and rain (IFR) is likely tonight, generally after 12z. Thunderstorm chances/confidence are highest at KMHK. While some storms may impact the Topeka terminals, confidence isn`t high enough at this point to mention in the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones