127
FXUS63 KTOP 121956
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms with two to three inch rainfall rates are
 possible late tonight into Tuesday morning and Tuesday night
 into Wednesday morning.

-Temperatures rise into the 90s Wednesday as a warm front lifts
 through the region.

-A few storms could produce marginally severe hail or wind
 Tuesday night or Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Another complex of storms is favored to develop across central
KS late tonight as a mid-level shortwave trough moves across
the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge. Elevated
thunderstorms are expected to push eastward into our area
tonight after midnight and exit the area late Tuesday morning.
Forecast soundings depict a nearly saturated column with pwats
around 2.0 inches, and ample mid-level ascent. Thus, confidence
is high in this round of rain impacting the area and heavy
rainfall rates of two to three inches an hour. Forecast rain
totals are highest south of I-70 where over an inch of rain is
favored.

Showers and storms will are possible again across far northeast
KS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes
northward across the area. The window of storm potential is
rather narrow as storms should rapidly move north and east of
the area as the warm front progresses into Nebraska/Iowa. If
storms do form along the front they could be marginally severe
with some hail and gusty winds. We will reside squarely within
the warm sector Wednesday and temperatures will rise back into
the 90s with dew points reaching the mid 70s. These conditions
will combine to create heat index values around 105 degrees,
especially for locations along and south of I-70. Another mid-
level wave will move across the central Plains late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A surface trough is favored to develop
ahead of this wave. This could lead to more storms during the
evening and overnight hours Wednesday. In addition to high rain
rates and the threat for isolated flooding, damaging wind gusts
and hail could be a concern with storms that develop during
this timeframe given the hot and humid air mass in place.

Rain chances become less certain later in the week with greater
spread in model solutions. Temps look to stay near average with
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s/low 70s early
Thursday, but slightly cooler in the mid 60s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Morning MVFR conditions quickly clearing to VFR this afternoon.
Another round of stratus and rain (IFR) is likely tonight,
generally after 12z. Thunderstorm chances/confidence are highest
at KMHK. While some storms may impact the Topeka terminals,
confidence isn`t high enough at this point to mention in the
TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones