![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
945 FXUS63 KTOP 131944 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 244 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms, with two to three inch an hour rainfall rates are possible tonight into Wednesday morning across far northeast Kansas and areawide Wednesday evening. -Heat indicies around 105 are expected tomorrow afternoon for much of the area. -A few severe storms are possible tonight across far northeast Kansas and areawide Wednesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Showers and storms will are possible again across northeast KS tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area and another mid-level wave moves overhead. If storms do form along the front, they could be marginally severe with some hail and gusty winds. The bulk of the best lift and convergence is favored to remain north and east of our area, but isentropic ascent in a warm and moist airmass in place may lead to some scattered showers and storms over portions of far east central and northeastern Kansas. Precipitable water remains in the 2-3 inch range, thus any showers/storms that do develop should be efficient rainfall producers, so heavy rain and flooding could once again become a concern. While storms should exit our are fairly quickly if they develop, any training or backbuilding could lead to a quick accumulation of rainfall in any isolated areas that experience these features. We will reside squarely within the warm sector Wednesday and temperatures will rise back into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid to upper 70s. These conditions will combine to create heat index values around 105 degrees, especially for locations along and south of I-70. A Heat Advisory has been issued as a result. Another mid-level wave will move across the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface trough is favored to develop ahead of this wave. This could lead to more storms during the evening and overnight hours Wednesday. In addition to high rain rates and the threat for isolated flooding, damaging wind gusts and hail could be a concern with storms that develop during this timeframe. Sporadic rain chances remain later in the week as we are favored to remain on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge and in the neighborhood of passing upper-level waves. Temperatures should stay near to slightly below normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions favored for the rest of the day today as showers and stratus diminish. A return to MVFR/IFR conditions appears likely later tonight as a warm front lifts northward across the area. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front, but this activity is favored to remain north of the terminals tonight. As the front pushers further and further north stratus will begin to clear across the area and we should see a return to VFR by late morning Wednesday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ021- KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones