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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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692 FXUS63 KTOP 140525 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms, with two to three inch an hour rainfall rates are possible tonight into Wednesday morning across far northeast Kansas and area wide Wednesday evening. -Heat indicies around 105 are expected tomorrow afternoon for much of the area. -A few severe storms are possible tonight across far northeast Kansas and state wide Wednesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Showers and storms will are possible again across northeast KS tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area and another mid-level wave moves overhead. If storms do form along the front, they could be marginally severe with some hail and gusty winds. The bulk of the best lift and convergence is favored to remain north and east of our area, but isentropic ascent in a warm and moist airmass in place may lead to some scattered showers and storms over portions of far east central and northeastern Kansas. Precipitable water remains in the 2-3 inch range, thus any showers/storms that do develop should be efficient rainfall producers, so heavy rain and flooding could once again become a concern. While storms should exit our are fairly quickly if they develop, any training or backbuilding could lead to a quick accumulation of rainfall in any isolated areas that experience these features. We will reside squarely within the warm sector Wednesday and temperatures will rise back into the 90s with dew points reaching the mid to upper 70s. These conditions will combine to create heat index values around 105 degrees, especially for locations along and south of I-70. A Heat Advisory has been issued as a result. Another mid-level wave will move across the central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface trough is favored to develop ahead of this wave. This could lead to more storms during the evening and overnight hours Wednesday. In addition to high rain rates and the threat for isolated flooding, damaging wind gusts and hail could be a concern with storms that develop during this timeframe. Sporadic rain chances remain later in the week as we are favored to remain on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge and in the neighborhood of passing upper-level waves. Temperatures should stay near to slightly below normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs are expected through mid-to-late morning when low cigs are expected to scatter out. There is a low chance for a few showers near KTOP/KFOE through 08z with better chances for showers/storms coming late in the period. Coverage of precipitation this evening remains uncertain, so have input VCSH/VCTS for now and will refine with future issuances. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Flanagan