692
FXUS63 KTOP 140525
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms, with two to three inch an hour rainfall rates
 are possible tonight into Wednesday morning across far
 northeast Kansas and area wide Wednesday evening.

-Heat indicies around 105 are expected tomorrow afternoon for
 much of the area.

-A few severe storms are possible tonight across far northeast
 Kansas and state wide Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Showers and storms will are possible again across northeast KS
tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward
across the area and another mid-level wave moves overhead. If
storms do form along the front, they could be marginally severe
with some hail and gusty winds. The bulk of the best lift and
convergence is favored to remain north and east of our area, but
isentropic ascent in a warm and moist airmass in place may lead
to some scattered showers and storms over portions of far
east central and northeastern Kansas. Precipitable water
remains in the 2-3 inch range, thus any showers/storms that do
develop should be efficient rainfall producers, so heavy rain
and flooding could once again become a concern. While storms
should exit our are fairly quickly if they develop, any training
or backbuilding could lead to a quick accumulation of rainfall
in any isolated areas that experience these features.

We will reside squarely within the warm sector Wednesday and
temperatures will rise back into the 90s with dew points
reaching the mid to upper 70s. These conditions will combine to
create heat index values around 105 degrees, especially for
locations along and south of I-70. A Heat Advisory has been
issued as a result. Another mid-level wave will move across the
central Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A surface
trough is favored to develop ahead of this wave. This could lead
to more storms during the evening and overnight hours
Wednesday. In addition to high rain rates and the threat for
isolated flooding, damaging wind gusts and hail could be a
concern with storms that develop during this timeframe.

Sporadic rain chances remain later in the week as we are favored
to remain on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper-level
ridge and in the neighborhood of passing upper-level waves.
Temperatures should stay near to slightly below normal for this
time of year with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs are expected through mid-to-late morning
when low cigs are expected to scatter out. There is a low
chance for a few showers near KTOP/KFOE through 08z with better
chances for showers/storms coming late in the period. Coverage
of precipitation this evening remains uncertain, so have input
VCSH/VCTS for now and will refine with future issuances.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan