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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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009 FXUS63 KTOP 141935 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 235 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the area this afternoon as heat index values climb to around 105 degrees. - Thunderstorms, some severe, will impact the area this evening with large hail, damaging wind, and rainfall rates of two- three inches an hour. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Cloud cover has been slow to clear today in the wake of a departing MCS that moved through Missouri. A quasi-warm front has setup across northeast Kansas early this afternoon. The boundary layer has been slow to mix out over most of the area, thus, temperatures have not risen as quickly as earlier anticipated. Only far southern/western areas are currently seeing heat indicies rising to advisory levels, but as the warm front retreats to the north and southerly flow increases, temperatures, and therefore heat indicies, should quickly rise. Therefore, will maintain the ongoing Heat Advisory. A mid-level shortwave trough is moving into the central Plains this afternoon, pushing a surface trough into central KS. Ascent from the passing wave and convergence along the surface trough will be sufficient for convective initiation to occur between 5-7PM across central Kansas. Large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain are the main threats with storms that fire along the trough with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, bulk shear around 30 knots, DCAPE of 1000+ J/Kg and PWATS in the 2-3 inch range. Storm motions are favored to be largely parallel to the surface trough which could lead to training of storms unless the advancing shortwave keeps the overall complex of storms progressing to east fast enough. If storms train over the same areas, the flooding potential increases with 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates. Another potential area of development is the retreating warm front across northeast Kansas. Some of the 12z/18z CAMS are suggesting some isolated cells could develop along the front, or differential heating boundary, later this afternoon. If a storm does develop along this boundary, all severe hazards will be possible, including tornadoes due to a sharply turning wind profile and locally enhanced SRH along the boundary. The surface trough stalls across the area on Thursday with several perturbations in the flow passing through. The first wave could keep some showers and storms around through the morning hours ahead of the next wave that moves through during the afternoon and evening. Key mesoscale details such as how much heating will take place after any morning convection are uncertain, but the passing wave could generate additional storms during the afternoon and evening. Shear is better, but instability is weaker compared to the environment that is expected this afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, strong to severe storms are possible with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards. Several passing waves bring periodic chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures remain right around climatological normals for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR at all TAF sites through the early evening as stratus clears. A cold front will move through tonight, bringing a chance of thunderstorms and westerly wind shift. The most likely time for the frontal passage and storms is after 02z at KMHK and after 04z at KTOP/KFOE. Showers and storms should be out of the area by 12z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Jones