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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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512 FXUS63 KTOP 142315 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 615 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the area this afternoon as heat index values climb to around 105 degrees. - Thunderstorms, some severe, will impact the area this evening with large hail, damaging wind, and rainfall rates of two- three inches an hour. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Cloud cover has been slow to clear today in the wake of a departing MCS that moved through Missouri. A quasi-warm front has setup across northeast Kansas early this afternoon. The boundary layer has been slow to mix out over most of the area, thus, temperatures have not risen as quickly as earlier anticipated. Only far southern/western areas are currently seeing heat indicies rising to advisory levels, but as the warm front retreats to the north and southerly flow increases, temperatures, and therefore heat indicies, should quickly rise. Therefore, will maintain the ongoing Heat Advisory. A mid-level shortwave trough is moving into the central Plains this afternoon, pushing a surface trough into central KS. Ascent from the passing wave and convergence along the surface trough will be sufficient for convective initiation to occur between 5-7PM across central Kansas. Large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain are the main threats with storms that fire along the trough with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, bulk shear around 30 knots, DCAPE of 1000+ J/Kg and PWATS in the 2-3 inch range. Storm motions are favored to be largely parallel to the surface trough which could lead to training of storms unless the advancing shortwave keeps the overall complex of storms progressing to east fast enough. If storms train over the same areas, the flooding potential increases with 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates. Another potential area of development is the retreating warm front across northeast Kansas. Some of the 12z/18z CAMS are suggesting some isolated cells could develop along the front, or differential heating boundary, later this afternoon. If a storm does develop along this boundary, all severe hazards will be possible, including tornadoes due to a sharply turning wind profile and locally enhanced SRH along the boundary. The surface trough stalls across the area on Thursday with several perturbations in the flow passing through. The first wave could keep some showers and storms around through the morning hours ahead of the next wave that moves through during the afternoon and evening. Key mesoscale details such as how much heating will take place after any morning convection are uncertain, but the passing wave could generate additional storms during the afternoon and evening. Shear is better, but instability is weaker compared to the environment that is expected this afternoon. If sufficient destabilization can occur, strong to severe storms are possible with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards. Several passing waves bring periodic chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures remain right around climatological normals for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The main aviation hazard will be thunderstorms moving over the terminals this evening. A warm front passing to the north of the terminals over the next few hours will veer the winds back towards the south outside of any outflow boundaries from convection. Based off latest model guidance, the main chance for storms along the cold front moving out of central Nebraska should enter to KMHK around 8-9 PM this evening, and KTOP and KFOE around 10-11 PM. There will be a chance for convection to reach the terminals a bit sooner if some can form along the warm front, but confidence in this is low and has been kept out of the TAFs. Storms this evening will be capable of very heavy rainfall that could drop visibilities into IFR criteria and wind gusts to 60-70 mph. Lingering showers and storms will persist into the early morning hours of Thursday with precip coming to an end around sunrise for KTOP and KFOE and a few hours sooner at KMHK. For the remainder of the TAF, winds will remain light while slowly shifting to the northwest with scattered diurnal cu. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Prieto