867
FXUS63 KTOP 160852
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (20-35%) increase this afternoon and
  evening with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- Quieter weather and cooler temperatures are expected this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mid-level flow is becoming northwesterly across the Central Plains
this morning as an upper-level closed low spins across the Upper
Midwest. Clear skies and light winds have allowed for some patchy
and shallow fog to develop, mainly in low-lying areas and river
valleys. This fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Models prog a
couple of shortwaves to move through the area today, sparking
showers and storms this morning into the evening. The main
instability axis will be to our southwest, but guidance shows 500-
1000 J/kg of MUCAPE this afternoon along with 35-45kts of effective
shear. Storms will be high-based and forecast soundings show
inverted-V profiles and the potential for strong to severe wind
gusts with these storms.

Mid-level lapse rates steepen further late this afternoon into the
evening as the low-level jet strengthens. As a result,
convection may tend to intensify and grow upscale during the
evening, although the location of storms during this time
remains uncertain. The best environment for severe storms is
still expected to be just south of the forecast area, but areas
along a Concordia to Ottawa line could be impacted by strong to
severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
main hazards with these storms. Storms along the nose of the LLJ
across southeast Kansas may tend to train over the same areas
into early Saturday, leading to at least a low potential for
locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.

The pattern turns quieter this weekend into next week as an upper
ridge builds north and east and surface high pressure slides south
into the northern and central Plains. Even with the ridge being in
close proximity, east-northeast low-level winds will keep the heat
to the southwest. Slightly below normal temperatures are favored
Sunday and Monday, possibly Tuesday as well, with highs in the low
to mid 80s. The NBM shows little spread (less than 5 degrees between
the 25-75th percentiles) in high temperatures Sunday and Monday,
increasing confidence in these cooler temperatures. Southerly flow
returns for Wednesday and bumps temperatures back near
climatological normals. A few shortwaves are progged to round the
ridge and bring periodic chances for showers and storms to the area
Sunday night through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Clear skies and light winds overnight favors shallow fog development,
especially in the river valley at KTOP and KMHK. After any fog
burns off shortly after sunrise, VFR conditions prevail. A
complex of showers and storms moves towards terminals during
the afternoon. Location of this band of precipitation is
uncertain with best chances for TS near KMHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan