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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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569 FXUS63 KTOP 161104 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances (20-35%) increase this afternoon and evening with the potential for a few strong to severe storms. - Quieter weather and cooler temperatures are expected this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Mid-level flow is becoming northwesterly across the Central Plains this morning as an upper-level closed low spins across the Upper Midwest. Clear skies and light winds have allowed for some patchy and shallow fog to develop, mainly in low-lying areas and river valleys. This fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Models prog a couple of shortwaves to move through the area today, sparking showers and storms this morning into the evening. The main instability axis will be to our southwest, but guidance shows 500- 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE this afternoon along with 35-45kts of effective shear. Storms will be high-based and forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles and the potential for strong to severe wind gusts with these storms. Mid-level lapse rates steepen further late this afternoon into the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. As a result, convection may tend to intensify and grow upscale during the evening, although the location of storms during this time remains uncertain. The best environment for severe storms is still expected to be just south of the forecast area, but areas along a Concordia to Ottawa line could be impacted by strong to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with these storms. Storms along the nose of the LLJ across southeast Kansas may tend to train over the same areas into early Saturday, leading to at least a low potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. The pattern turns quieter this weekend into next week as an upper ridge builds north and east and surface high pressure slides south into the northern and central Plains. Even with the ridge being in close proximity, east-northeast low-level winds will keep the heat to the southwest. Slightly below normal temperatures are favored Sunday and Monday, possibly Tuesday as well, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The NBM shows little spread (less than 5 degrees between the 25-75th percentiles) in high temperatures Sunday and Monday, increasing confidence in these cooler temperatures. Southerly flow returns for Wednesday and bumps temperatures back near climatological normals. A few shortwaves are progged to round the ridge and bring periodic chances for showers and storms to the area Sunday night through Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Morning fog at KTOP/KMHK burns off by 13z with VFR conditions expected afterwards. Watching storms across that will approach terminals this afternoon. Timing of storms, how long they remain near sites, and whether they impact terminals directly is uncertain; have input VCTS for the period with best chances for TS. Shallow fog development is possible again near the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan