944
FXUS63 KTOP 161649
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (20-35%) increase this afternoon and
  evening with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- Quieter weather and cooler temperatures are expected this
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Mid-level flow is becoming northwesterly across the Central Plains
this morning as an upper-level closed low spins across the Upper
Midwest. Clear skies and light winds have allowed for some patchy
and shallow fog to develop, mainly in low-lying areas and river
valleys. This fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Models prog a
couple of shortwaves to move through the area today, sparking
showers and storms this morning into the evening. The main
instability axis will be to our southwest, but guidance shows 500-
1000 J/kg of MUCAPE this afternoon along with 35-45kts of effective
shear. Storms will be high-based and forecast soundings show
inverted-V profiles and the potential for strong to severe wind
gusts with these storms.

Mid-level lapse rates steepen further late this afternoon into the
evening as the low-level jet strengthens. As a result,
convection may tend to intensify and grow upscale during the
evening, although the location of storms during this time
remains uncertain. The best environment for severe storms is
still expected to be just south of the forecast area, but areas
along a Concordia to Ottawa line could be impacted by strong to
severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
main hazards with these storms. Storms along the nose of the LLJ
across southeast Kansas may tend to train over the same areas
into early Saturday, leading to at least a low potential for
locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.

The pattern turns quieter this weekend into next week as an upper
ridge builds north and east and surface high pressure slides south
into the northern and central Plains. Even with the ridge being in
close proximity, east-northeast low-level winds will keep the heat
to the southwest. Slightly below normal temperatures are favored
Sunday and Monday, possibly Tuesday as well, with highs in the low
to mid 80s. The NBM shows little spread (less than 5 degrees between
the 25-75th percentiles) in high temperatures Sunday and Monday,
increasing confidence in these cooler temperatures. Southerly flow
returns for Wednesday and bumps temperatures back near
climatological normals. A few shortwaves are progged to round the
ridge and bring periodic chances for showers and storms to the area
Sunday night through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A warm air advection pattern may allow for scattered SHRA this
afternoon, but forecast soundings keep inhibition to surface
based storms. The CAMs are mixed in terms of whether SHRA will
impact the terminals. With storms out west, will keep a mention
of SHRA and VCTS but expect the more intense storms to remain
south of the terminals. VFR conditions should prevail unless a
SHRA passes overhead. Lingering cloud cover tonight raises
doubts about ground fog formation so will let later shifts
monitor trends.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters