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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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676 FXUS63 KTOP 161921 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 221 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms may persist across east central Kansas this evening. - There is a small chance (10 to 20 percent) for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday night. - Relatively quiet weather is forecast for next week with mild temperatures continuing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 19Z water vapor imagery showed a broad upper level ridge across the southwestern U.S. with the mean westerlies remaining across the northern tier of the country. A closed upper low was noted over northern WI, a shortwave trough lifting north through the northern Rockies and another upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Surface obs had a low pressure system just west of the Great Lakes with weak surface ridging extending from the northern plains into central KS. An area of showers and thunderstorms that were ongoing over northwestern KS this morning have moved into central KS within a warm air advection regime. Mid level warm air advection is progged to persist through much of the night tonight into eastern KS. Because of this will keep a chance POP going in spite of the lack of convection from the CAMs. It may just be the current shower activity festering through the evening. But the NAM forecast soundings show potentially some elevated instability for renewed convection this evening as the low level jet increases over the southern plains. There isn`t a lot of cold air advection with the surface ridge so lows tonight are expected to be in the middle 60s. Models show for Saturday through next week an amplifying ridge building over the central Rockies with the potential for disturbances to crest the ridge and move over northeast KS. Perhaps a subtle shortwave comes across the area on Sunday. Lift is better seen on isentropic surfaces with mid level warm air advection redeveloping late Saturday night and through the day Sunday. The NBM generally has POPs less than 20 percent which may be a little underdone given the similar prog from the NAM and GFS. If later versions of the blend continue to keep POPs low, we may need to adjust chances a little higher. After Sunday the predictability of these shortwave details gets lower. So there isn`t a lot to change from the blend which has some slight chances Tuesday night. Temps next week are forecast to be in the 80s which would generally be a little below normal. This looks to be influenced in large part by the 00Z ECMWF which maintains a stronger surface ridge over eastern KS through mid-week. Think if the forecast is going to need adjustment it may be towards a warmer forecast given the amplitude of the upper ridge. For now the GFS which is notorious for having a warm bias, shows the surface ridge breaking down sooner so have not made significant changes to the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A warm air advection pattern may allow for scattered SHRA this afternoon, but forecast soundings keep inhibition to surface based storms. The CAMs are mixed in terms of whether SHRA will impact the terminals. With storms out west, will keep a mention of SHRA and VCTS but expect the more intense storms to remain south of the terminals. VFR conditions should prevail unless a SHRA passes overhead. Lingering cloud cover tonight raises doubts about ground fog formation so will let later shifts monitor trends. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters