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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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292 FXUS63 KTOP 200805 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 305 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for off and on showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. - Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then warming through late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Early this morning convection was moving southward out of Nebraska associated with vorticity maxima moving southeast across Iowa and eastern Nebraska at 0730Z. The convection was weakening as it moves into a more stable environment across north central and northeast Kansas. Expect mainly showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as it moves southward early this morning. For today, scattered morning showers and a few rumbles of thunder can be expected as it the energy moves across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Not expecting severe weather with the convection as shear is forecast to remain weak and MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg. There may be a lull for part of the afternoon hours, but increase again tonight as additional forcing for ascent from a vorticity maxima within the mid and upper level trough moves southward from Iowa into eastern Kansas and Missouri. This feature will keep chances for precipitation in the forecast through the day on Sunday into Sunday evening. Lower precipitation chances with isolated showers/storms expected on Monday as additional weak perturbations move through the mid/upper level trough. East central Kansas may see some more isolated showers on Tuesday, but chances are less than 20 percent. Temperatures today will be below normal in the 70s to lower 80s. Similar temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Temperatures begin to moderate on Tuesday with temperatures reaching normal values around 90 degrees for the latter part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. There will be some isolated showers and a few storms through the period after 10Z through about 21Z, then isolated shra thereafter. Winds under 10kts from the east southeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53