292
FXUS63 KTOP 200805
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for off and on showers and thunderstorms are expected
  through Tuesday.

- Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then
  warming through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Early this morning convection was moving southward out of Nebraska
associated with vorticity maxima moving southeast across Iowa and
eastern Nebraska at 0730Z. The convection was weakening as it moves
into a more stable environment across north central and northeast
Kansas. Expect mainly showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
as it moves southward early this morning.

For today, scattered morning showers and a few rumbles of thunder
can be expected as it the energy moves across northeast Kansas and
northwest Missouri. Not expecting severe weather with the convection
as shear is forecast to remain weak and MUCAPE generally less than
1000 J/kg. There may be a lull for part of the afternoon hours, but
increase again tonight as additional forcing for ascent from a
vorticity maxima within the mid and upper level trough moves
southward from Iowa into eastern Kansas and Missouri. This feature
will keep chances for precipitation in the forecast through the day
on Sunday into Sunday evening. Lower precipitation chances with
isolated showers/storms expected on Monday as additional weak
perturbations move through the mid/upper level trough. East central
Kansas may see some more isolated showers on Tuesday, but chances
are less than 20 percent.

Temperatures today will be below normal in the 70s to lower 80s.
Similar temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
begin to moderate on Tuesday with temperatures reaching normal
values around 90 degrees for the latter part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There will be
some isolated showers and a few storms through the period after
10Z through about 21Z, then isolated shra thereafter. Winds
under 10kts from the east southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53