Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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550 FXUS63 KTOP 150513 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1213 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather continues through Monday. - Cold front moves in Monday night with some small chances for showers and storms into Wednesday. - Much cooler temperatures forecast to end the week and last through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 19Z water vapor imagery showed the center of the upper ridge still to the west over the CO/NM state line. At the surface, a meso high over southwest NEB is weakening and the boundary that moved through this morning has begun to wash out. The main impact from this boundary has be to delay the mixing of the boundary layer and keep dewpoints warmer. The forecast is relatively straight forwards through Monday as the 12Z RAOB showed 700MB temps of +13 and the models showing mid level temps only getting warmer. This should keep the boundary layer capped while mid level drying makes elevated storms unlikely. A few sites are already around 105 this afternoon and models continue to advect even warmer air into the forecast area for Monday. Did not go quite as hot as the NBM has it out west since the ECMWF is a tad cooler at 925MB and 850MB. But still have forecast highs between 100 and 108. Will also keep the heat advisory as is without any changes. A frontal boundary moves into the area Monday night as the upper ridge to the west brakes down and shortwave energy passes through the northern plains. Mid level temps are forecast to remain rather warm between 10C and 14C and think this is the reason models are not generating much convection with the front. But there are some solutions that show the potential for shortwave energy to move over the area late Monday night and Tuesday. If this occurs, height falls and dynamic forcing may be enough for some precip to develop and have some low chance POPs in the forecast in spit of the NBM generally keeping the forecast dry. The NAM and GFS show bulk shear increasing to between 30KT and 40KT on Tuesday. Combined with some instability lagging the frontal boundary, think the marginal risk for severe storms is appropriate with some potential for large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall. The one thing to watch out for will be the timing of the front. If the boundary continues to trend faster, the instability could be displaced south by Tuesday evening. An uncommonly strong surface ridge is progged to move into the Midwest for the last half of the work week and next weekend. Models amplify the pattern with ridging to the west and meridional flow over the plains allowing for unseasonably cool air to move in and stay over the plains. Interestingly the NBM shows there isn`t a lot of spread among the models for the later half of the forecast So confidence in below normal temperatures is increasing. There may be some energy dig south along the high plains that could spark some precip and the forecast has 20% to 30% chance POPs in the forecast for this. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR at terminals as satellite continues to track patchy areas of smoke aloft potentially impacting KMHK by the morning. Marginal LLWS is still seen on forecast soundings with the LLJ increasing from 35 to 40 kts from the southwest. Sfc winds become gusty aft 15Z above 10 kts while high clouds increase during the afternoon. A weak wind shift with the fropa is expected towards the end of the forecast period, while TSRA remains well behind the boundary. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009- KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055- KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Prieto