518
FXUS63 KTOP 150755
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
255 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of oppressive heat with heat indices to around
  110 before relief arrives beginning Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Scattered storms are possible late this evening, returning
  chances along the cold front Tuesday evening. A few may be
  strong with gusty winds and hail being the main hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A few clusters of convection noted this morning across the central
CONUS amid the northwest flow rotating around the upper ridge
axis over New Mexico. Other than a few passing high clouds from
residual convection in western Kansas, a dry forecast ensues
today for northeast Kansas as h700 temps persist in the 13-16C
range. No major changes to temps or the Heat Advisory today as
all guidance is on track for heat indices from 105 to near 110
by late afternoon. Introduced slight pops by 00Z this evening as
a few CAM members are developing isolated TS near the
approaching cold front across north central KS. Confidence
remains fairly low given the warm temps aloft and very dry air
beneath the 15 kft cloud bases. As an embedded shortwave trough
rounds the ridge late this evening into Tuesday morning,
convection may become more scattered behind the initial wind
shift. While effective shear values are unimpressive around 20
kts, ample MUCAPE may result in quick forming updrafts and gusty
winds to 60 mph. These storms should exit to the east by mid-
morning, replaced by mostly cloudy skies and slightly cooler
temps Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints hover in the low 70s around
the frontal boundary bisecting from east to west over the CWA.
This unfortunately results in one final afternoon of warm albeit
below heat advisory levels between 95-100 heat indices.

Timing of the front and another northern embedded shortwave trough
by Tuesday evening varies somewhat between the ensemble guidance,
focusing highest probability for convection forming across southeast
Kansas and northern Nebraska. These storms may once again be
marginally severe with gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy
rainfall through early Wed. morning.

Remainder of the forecast is mostly quiet as an anomalously cool sfc
ridge settles in from the Great Lakes into the central plains
Wednesday through the weekend. Temps on average are 10 degrees
below normal with overall lows in the low 60s and highs in the
low 80s. A slow moving upper trough returns storm chances this
weekend with a high variability on track and qpf amounts at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR at terminals as satellite continues to track patchy areas of
smoke aloft potentially impacting KMHK by the morning. Marginal
LLWS is still seen on forecast soundings with the LLJ increasing
from 35 to 40 kts from the southwest. Sfc winds become gusty aft
15Z above 10 kts while high clouds increase during the
afternoon. A weak wind shift with the fropa is expected towards
the end of the forecast period, while TSRA remains well behind
the boundary.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto