Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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881 FXUS63 KTOP 210528 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. - Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then warming through late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 MCV from early morning convection has moved into the KC area while a trailing shallow rain cooled boundary appears to linger west across parts of the area where a narrow ribbon of precip continues. This appears due at least in part to shallow isentropic lift atop the rain cooled air on the east side of the larger scale circulation across central Kansas. This low level forcing should weaken through the evening leaving a somewhat weak low level wind regime across the area. The 850mb trough/boundary will bisect the area from north to south overnight however weak winds should limit stronger convergence and more widespread precip chcs. The only focused area of southerly 850mb winds should be across far southeast KS overnight where better precip coverage is expected. The upper low now across IA will sag south with another area of mid level vorticity spreading south overnight. Forcing/lift should remain aloft and with weak sfc/850mb winds would expect only sct precip with this feature late tonight so will carry general 20-30 pops later tonight. Meanwhile, some patchy fog could form across central Kansas tonight where cloud coverage may be lower. The area will remain under the influence of the upper trough through Tuesday with occasional chances for scattered precip through that time. Timing/location for best chances remains uncertain at this point given weak low level winds. Temps will remain below average through at least that period however. The trough should exit to our east by Weds with warmer temps into late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated SHRA expected through the period, but confidence in timing and occurrence at the terminals precludes including in the forecast at this time. Winds continue light from the east to northeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Omitt AVIATION...53