957
FXUS63 KTOP 160809
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- As a cold front slows across northeast Kansas, a series of impulses
  trigger scattered storms this morning through the evening
  hours. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds to around
  50 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

- Heat indices from 100 to 103 are expected this afternoon along
  and south of I-35.

- Below normal temperatures settle in Wednesday onward, followed
  by precip chances returning this weekend.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Series of embedded perturbations noted withing the quasi-westerly
flow aloft across the central plains region this morning. The
strongest impulse over western Kansas has developed a cluster of
convection while more scattered activity is developing upstream into
north central Kansas, in proximity to the 850 mb front where
isentropic ascent along the 310-320K surfaces is gradually
increasing through sunrise. Despite variances in short term guidance
on the evolution of this activity, models and observations are
consistent in ample MUCAPE and effective shear values up to 35 kts
to sustain activity as the shortwave trough slides eastward into
eastern Kansas later today. The depth of the wave is not
particularly strong so there is some uncertainty on the coverage of
precipitation during the morning period. Nevertheless, it seems
prudent to maintain low chance pops as activity should become more
isolated in the afternoon. Redevelopment of convection is possible
along the h85 boundary by late afternoon as SFC cape surges above
4000 J/KG with little to no inhibition. Effective shear is fairly
weak and lapse rates are not too impressive so would believe
coverage to be isolated at best. Updrafts may be capable of strong
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Additionally, another shortwave trough is
progged to slide southeast this evening, developing a cluster of
storms across southern NE. These storms may impact north central
areas this evening, producing severe wind gusts and hail. Activity
gradually weakens overnight while another round of showers and
storms focuses across southern Kansas and northern Kansas. In
collaboration with our southern neighbors, opted to keep slight pops
this evening, however latest guidance would support better forcing
near the front being south of the CWA with much of the area being
dry overnight.

The cooler airmass arrives Wednesday morning as gusty northeast
winds in the afternoon bring high temperatures down to the lower and
middle 80s. Dry, cool, and mostly sunny conditions reign through
Friday. Abnormally cool sfc high pressure continues to spread
southwestward this weekend as a southward moving upper low increases
cloud cover, storm chances, and reinforcing cooler air with highs
around 80 and lows in the low 60s through early next week. Timing of
the upper trough is somewhat similar between GFS and EC ensembles of
highest pops on Saturday evening however, precip chances may linger
into next week as ridging over the southeast CONUS may slow the
progression of the upper low away from the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR at terminals with focus being on the passing FROPA and
increasing scattered TSRA developing over western KS, reaching
terminals aft 10Z. Maintained the TEMPO mention, even though
latest guidance is trending less in coverage of storms and may
be slightly further north of sites as well. Winds veer to the
northeast aft 15Z around 10 kts through the afternoon. Models
hint at the possibility for isolated TSRA redeveloping aft 22Z
near KTOP/KFOE. Will monitor trends and consider mentioning at
next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto