Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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732 FXUS63 KTOP 161925 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are low chances (15-25%) for storms this evening and overnight. If storms impact the area, they could produce gusty winds. - Below normal temperatures settle in Wednesday into early next week with precipitation chances returning Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Quasi-zonal flow resides across the central Plains this afternoon with a longwave trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Satellite shows a MCV spinning across southeast Kansas where a surface boundary currently lies. Clearing skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s, although dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s are creating heat indices of 90-100 degrees. Decreasing CIN across east central Kansas and lift from the MCV has lead to scattered showers this afternoon, but any showers/storms should shift east over the next couple of hours with the MCV`s eastward propagation. A shortwave dives south this evening, generating convection across central Nebraska. These storms will try to push into portions of north central Kansas after 9PM, but will run into a less favorable environment and are expected to weaken before they reach this far south. If they impact the area, they could produce gusty winds. Additional convection that develops overnight should remain primarily to the south of the local area across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Low chance (15-25%) PoPs have been maintained this evening and overnight, but confidence in storms impacting the area has continued to lower. Relief from the heat arrives tomorrow as Canadian high pressure slides south and brings in cooler and drier air. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s are forecast through the weekend. The surface high pushes east into the Mississippi Valley by Friday as a shortwave dives south-southeast across the middle of the CONUS and may become cut-off over the region this weekend. Chances of precipitation increase with the approach of this wave Friday into Saturday and may linger into early next week depending on the evolution of this wave. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions expected. There is some signal for low stratus to build in after 10z Wednesday, but confidence in this scenario is too low for inclusion. Winds remain light from the northeast through the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan