Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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141 FXUS63 KTOP 171708 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and non-severe storms possible this afternoon. - Cooler, more pleasant airmass settles in through next week. - Widespread showers and thunderstorm chances return late Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cooler, drier air is marching into the area this morning behind the cold front that has reached southern KS. Elongated troughing aloft from the Midwest into the plains region continues for this afternoon, lending to some uncertainty in isolated precipitation developing. A minor perturbation is observed and advertised by the latest HRRR and RAP passing through far eastern KS by early afternoon, increasing mid level moisture around 700 mb. Isolated showers and non-severe storms cannot be ruled out through late afternoon, however most of the area should remain dry. Sfc high pressure spreads southward through the day, advecting temps in the low to mid 80s for highs. Persistence in the forecast continues on Thursday sans precip chances and cloud cover as guidance focuses any qpf values towards the high plains. Return southerly flow occurs on Friday as high pressure modifies amid warm air advection and h85 temps increasing from 12-18C east to west. Highs in the low 90s are most likely over north central KS where enhanced BL mixing and gusty winds reside. A slow moving, poignant upper low traverses south through the plains late Friday night, impacting mainly north central areas early Saturday morning. As the trough axis passes through Kansas on Saturday, additional showers and storms are likely along and south of I-70. Moistening profiles throughout the column on the GFS signals decent rainfall rates that continue into Sunday as the upper low slows and stalls over the region. Both GFS and EC ensembles are fairly consistent in rainfall amounts and timing of rainfall through Sunday evening. Based on the GEFS, probability of QPF values are near 50% for at least 0.5 inches of rainfall. Due to the more widespread precip and cloud cover, the 25th-75th percentile on the NBM has trended cooler than previous runs with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. It`s valid to note that the timing of the precip could vary readings by as much as 5-10 degrees for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions prevail. Diurnal cumulus of 4-6kft dissipate later this afternoon. Winds remain less than 10kts from the northeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Flanagan