807
FXUS63 KTOP 171924
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid conditions into next week.

- Rain and storms chances increase Friday night through the weekend,
  lingering into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Upper-level flow has become northwesterly with a surface high
pressure in control of the Northern and Central Plains. It has a
been a much more pleasant day today than the past several days with
a cooler and less humid airmass in place. Daytime heating and steep
low-level lapse rates have led to the development of a cumulus
field. A lack of obvious ascent and a temperature inversion around
600mb should limit the vertical development of these cumulus clouds
and preclude any precipitation.

Mainly dry conditions continue Thursday and Friday, although a
couple of weak waves moving south in the meridional flow could lead
to isolated showers and a rumble of thunder across north central
Kansas Thursday and Friday mornings. Otherwise, expect a similar day
to today on Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures on Friday as
the surface high shifts east and southerly low-level flow returns. A
stronger wave dives south Friday night into Saturday with good
consensus among ensembles in this system becoming cutoff and
meandering around the region into the middle of next week. Best
chances for showers and storms come over the weekend with the
initial push of energy. Instability looks limited (NBM mean has
<500 J/kg) and marginal shear should limit the severe threat
overall. Forecast soundings do show skinny CAPE profiles and
increasing PWATs to near 1.5" which could lead to decent
rainfall across the area. From Friday night through Sunday
night, NBM shows a 50-70% chance of 0.5" of rain and a 25-40%
chance of 1" across the CWA. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will
depend on how widespread cloud cover and precipitation are
during the day. The current forecast lies on the low end of NBM
percentiles with a 6-8 degree spread in the 25th-75th
percentiles. Even a couple hour break in cloud coverage during
the afternoon would allow temperatures to warm into the low to
mid 80s. Waves of energy rotating around the cutoff low keep
chances for precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures in
the forecast through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail. Diurnal cumulus of 4-6kft dissipate
later this afternoon. Winds remain less than 10kts from the
northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan