Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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133 FXUS63 KTOP 180805 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure influence spells dry and below normal conditions today and Friday. - Showers and Thunderstorm chances increase late Friday evening into Saturday, highest chances being west of highway 75. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Northwest flow aloft streaming through the central CONUS this morning while an upper trough axis migrates into the Quebec province. Weak perturbations are noted by a cluster of convection dropping south into the panhandles region and central NE. Sfc high center towards MN is expected to spread southward into the area later today, maintaining light northeast winds and partly cloudy skies in the afternoon as some residual mid level clouds track southeast into the CWA. No major changes in temps made with readings in the low to middle 80s for highs. Slightly warming highs anticipated on Friday as lee troughing ensues over western Kansas, veering winds to the south around 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon over northeast Kansas. Stronger mixing and warmer h85 temps from 15-17C, results in highs in the low 90s for north central Kansas with middle 80s elsewhere. Pattern change commences Friday evening as a stronger embedded mid level trough develops a cluster of showers and storms from central NE into north central Kansas through Saturday morning. Mid term guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement on the vort max track and timing, indicating that highest precip chances reside over central Kansas through Saturday afternoon. NBM spread from the 25th-75th percentile through Saturday afternoon is moderate between 0 and 0.50 inches generally west of highway 75. Main change from previous forecast were the available moisture source as PWAT values have lowered some, resulting in an overall reduction of 0.25 to 0.33 inches of rainfall for total QPF this weekend. Temps Saturday are also uncertain, depending on the coverage of precipitation and cloud cover lingering into the afternoon. Spread is as much as 10 degrees potentially from the low to upper 80s. Shower and storm chances spread east towards far eastern Kansas Saturday evening into Sunday, albeit qpf amounts are generally low and less than 0.25 inches from the NBM. Severe weather probs are minimal given the meager mid level lapse rates. Confidence in the evolution of the upper low lowers next week between being cutoff from the northern jetstream and slowing over northeast Kansas and lifting northeast into the Mid- Atlantic. Nevertheless, the broad and weak troughing overhead justifies the slight chance pops mentioned Monday and Tuesday. Cloud cover and weak CAA should allow temps to remain below normal in the low 80s for highs and lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR with generally light northeast winds below 10 kts through the period. Diurnal cumulus at 050-060 kft are expected aft 17Z Thursday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto