807
FXUS63 KTOP 181723
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure influence spells dry and below normal conditions today
  and Friday.

- Showers and Thunderstorm chances increase late Friday evening
  into Saturday, highest chances being west of highway 75.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Northwest flow aloft streaming through the central CONUS this
morning while an upper trough axis migrates into the Quebec
province. Weak perturbations are noted by a cluster of convection
dropping south into the panhandles region and central NE. Sfc
high center towards MN is expected to spread southward into the
area later today, maintaining light northeast winds and partly
cloudy skies in the afternoon as some residual mid level clouds
track southeast into the CWA. No major changes in temps made
with readings in the low to middle 80s for highs. Slightly
warming highs anticipated on Friday as lee troughing ensues over
western Kansas, veering winds to the south around 10 to 15 mph
in the afternoon over northeast Kansas. Stronger mixing and
warmer h85 temps from 15-17C, results in highs in the low 90s
for north central Kansas with middle 80s elsewhere.

Pattern change commences Friday evening as a stronger embedded mid
level trough develops a cluster of showers and storms from central
NE into north central Kansas through Saturday morning. Mid term
guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement on the vort max
track and timing, indicating that highest precip chances reside
over central Kansas through Saturday afternoon. NBM spread from
the 25th-75th percentile through Saturday afternoon is moderate
between 0 and 0.50 inches generally west of highway 75. Main
change from previous forecast were the available moisture source
as PWAT values have lowered some, resulting in an overall
reduction of 0.25 to 0.33 inches of rainfall for total QPF this
weekend. Temps Saturday are also uncertain, depending on the
coverage of precipitation and cloud cover lingering into the
afternoon. Spread is as much as 10 degrees potentially from the
low to upper 80s.

Shower and storm chances spread east towards far eastern Kansas
Saturday evening into Sunday, albeit qpf amounts are generally low
and less than 0.25 inches from the NBM. Severe weather probs are
minimal given the meager mid level lapse rates. Confidence in
the evolution of the upper low lowers next week between being
cutoff from the northern jetstream and slowing over northeast
Kansas and lifting northeast into the Mid- Atlantic.
Nevertheless, the broad and weak troughing overhead justifies
the slight chance pops mentioned Monday and Tuesday. Cloud cover
and weak CAA should allow temps to remain below normal in the
low 80s for highs and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR prevails as we`re seeing some diurnal cu developing on
satellite and expect that to continue until around sunset. East
to northeast winds this afternoon should eventually turn toward
the south by tomorrow morning all while staying under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Picha