490
FXUS63 KTOP 190530
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather continues until late Friday night, with
  showers and thunderstorms off and on through the weekend into
  early next week.

- Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then
  moderating toward the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Upper troughing pattern encompasses much of the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, while ridging continues to dominate the Four Corners
region, which places our area within a northwest flow regime.
Expansive sfc high pressure dominates the Midwest. This sfc high
will slowly move eastward into Friday, eventually allowing winds to
veer back toward the south. The low-level southerly flow should help
temperatures warm slightly, though this looks more noticeable toward
central KS where mixing is a bit deeper. Highs are forecast in the
low to mid 80s east, approaching 90 in north central KS. Can`t rule
out a brief shower or sprinkle in north central KS in the morning as
decaying showers from western KS make their way into the area;
however, dry air in the low levels should prevent most rain from
reaching the ground so only have 15% PoPs for a few hours.

Better rain chances come late Friday night into Saturday as a vort
max dives south through the Plains within the northwest flow aloft.
This disturbance then stalls over the area this weekend and develops
into a cut-off low into early next week before finally getting
pushed out during the middle of the week. While the bulk of shower
and thunderstorm activity looks to be during the weekend, it is not
expected to be a washout with coverage looking scattered, meaning
there should be some dry time in between showers and storms.
Instability and shear look rather weak, with MUCAPE generally under
1000 J/kg with the exception of Saturday afternoon, so potential for
severe weather looks low. Chance PoPs remain in the forecast Monday
and Tuesday as the upper low is still overhead. Longer range
guidance generally favors this pattern breaking down toward the
middle of the week, although the EC does show another system
dropping southward into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, which keeps
low PoPs in eastern areas with most locations staying dry.

Clouds and rain keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance
Saturday through Tuesday with highs forecast in the upper 70s to low
80s and lows generally in the low to mid 60s. Assuming the pattern
does start to shift by mid-week, temperatures should start to
moderate closer to normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light east
southeast winds under 10kts are expected through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53