239
FXUS63 KTOP 190806
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for off and on showers and storms expected tonight through
  Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures expected through next Wednesday,
  then warming late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Early this morning the upper high continues over the Four Corners
with and northwest flow across the northern and central Plains as a
trough remains over the eastern U.S.. Water vapor this morning shows
a mid level wave dropping south out of Alberta and Saskatchewan
approaching Montana at 0730Z. A surface high continues from the Mid
Mississippi Valley southwest into southwest Oklahoma at 07Z. Winds
are starting to become southeast on the back side of the high over
central Kansas and this trend will continue to move into eastern
Kansas as the surface moves off to the east.

Isolated showers may affect parts of north central Kansas around
Sunrise this morning, but chances remain low (around 15%) or so for
areas near and west of U.S. Highway 81. Another day of moderate
temperatures is expected with highs near 90 into central Kansas with
mid to upper 80s in northeast and parts of east central Kansas.

Tonight the above mentioned shortwave is forecast to move southeast
across the Central Plains and an increase in moisture return ahead
of the wave, especially across western and central Kansas northward
into Nebraska will increase the probability of rainfall tonight
(30-60%) across north central and northeast Kansas.

On Saturday, the mid level trough will move into Iowa and northeast
Kansas. This feature becomes cut off and meanders over eastern
Kansas into Tuesday. Periodic showers and a few storms will be
possible through this time period. Weak shear and CAPE, generally
less than 1000 J/KG, are forecast through next Tuesday. There are
pockets of MUCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg Saturday and Sunday. Severe
weather is not expected through this period. Isolated locally heavy
rainfall is possible with isolated amounts of around an inch.

By Wednesday, the mid level trough moves off to the east as heights
rise across the central Plains as the trough/low moves off to the
east. Temperatures are expected to warm to around normal (lower 90s)
for much of central and north central Kansas next Thursday with the
warming spreading east on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light east
southeast winds under 10kts are expected through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53