829
FXUS63 KTOP 191935
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for off and on showers and thunderstorms are expected
  this weekend through Tuesday.

- Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then
  warming through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

As of 19Z, shortwave energy is noted in the SD/NE vicinity in
between the ridge still parked over the Four Corners and the upper
low circulating over the Hudson Bay. Thunderstorms associated with
that shortwave are moving through central NE, and additional
clusters of storms are expected to develop in western KS later this
evening. It is uncertain whether the storms currently in central and
eastern NE will maintain themselves as they approach the area. Only
the HRRR brings any of this activity into northern KS. If it does
make it by late afternoon or early evening, can`t entirely rule out
one of these storms producing gusty winds in north central KS where
the inverted-V profile looks more favorable and effective shear
approaches 35-40 kts. However, lapse rates and instability overall
are far better in western KS. That said, even if any of the storm
clusters from out there manage to make it this far east late tonight
and overnight, they would be moving into a less favorable
environment for severe weather. CAMs have been tracking the
strongest storms west of the area with our area more favored to see
general thunderstorms as MUCAPE remains under 1000 J/kg and lapse
rates are only around 6 deg C/km.

Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of
the weekend as the upper shortwave develops into a cut-off low and
stalls over the Missouri River valley region. Coverage looks
scattered throughout Saturday and Sunday and should not be a
washout, though most thunderstorms should occur late Saturday
afternoon into evening when there may be pockets of MUCAPE of 1000-
1200 J/kg. Shear weakens by this point and looks to remain weak
until the system eventually moves away. The probability for any
particular location to receive an inch of rain is low, but the HREF
75th percentile does show isolated locations with 1-1.5" by Sunday
morning. Based on that, it seems reasonable that any spot that sees
thunderstorms could get a quick inch or more of rain.

The upper low should start to weaken by Tuesday, keeping chances for
scattered showers and storms in the area through Monday and
gradually tapering off through Tuesday. The trough then moves east
Wednesday, bringing an end to the rain chances. Clouds and rain keep
cooler temperatures into early next week with highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s. A warming trend is expected Wednesday onward as mid-
level heights rise, bringing afternoon temperatures back toward 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR is forecast through the period. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms move into the area overnight with
scattered activity remaining in the region through the day
Saturday. Have gone with VCSH for now, as there is not enough
confidence to narrow the time frame for any embedded thunder
near TAF sites. Otherwise, winds remain under 10 kts from the
south to southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha