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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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985 FXUS63 KTOP 191734 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for off and on showers and storms expected tonight through Tuesday. - Below normal temperatures expected through next Wednesday, then warming late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Early this morning the upper high continues over the Four Corners with and northwest flow across the northern and central Plains as a trough remains over the eastern U.S.. Water vapor this morning shows a mid level wave dropping south out of Alberta and Saskatchewan approaching Montana at 0730Z. A surface high continues from the Mid Mississippi Valley southwest into southwest Oklahoma at 07Z. Winds are starting to become southeast on the back side of the high over central Kansas and this trend will continue to move into eastern Kansas as the surface moves off to the east. Isolated showers may affect parts of north central Kansas around Sunrise this morning, but chances remain low (around 15%) or so for areas near and west of U.S. Highway 81. Another day of moderate temperatures is expected with highs near 90 into central Kansas with mid to upper 80s in northeast and parts of east central Kansas. Tonight the above mentioned shortwave is forecast to move southeast across the Central Plains and an increase in moisture return ahead of the wave, especially across western and central Kansas northward into Nebraska will increase the probability of rainfall tonight (30-60%) across north central and northeast Kansas. On Saturday, the mid level trough will move into Iowa and northeast Kansas. This feature becomes cut off and meanders over eastern Kansas into Tuesday. Periodic showers and a few storms will be possible through this time period. Weak shear and CAPE, generally less than 1000 J/KG, are forecast through next Tuesday. There are pockets of MUCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg Saturday and Sunday. Severe weather is not expected through this period. Isolated locally heavy rainfall is possible with isolated amounts of around an inch. By Wednesday, the mid level trough moves off to the east as heights rise across the central Plains as the trough/low moves off to the east. Temperatures are expected to warm to around normal (lower 90s) for much of central and north central Kansas next Thursday with the warming spreading east on Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR is forecast through the period. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms move into the area overnight with scattered activity remaining in the region through the day Saturday. Have gone with VCSH for now, as there is not enough confidence to narrow the time frame for any embedded thunder near TAF sites. Otherwise, winds remain under 10 kts from the south to southeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Picha