Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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432 FXUS63 KTOP 070741 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms through the day today could produce locally heavy rainfall. - Seasonable temperatures Monday-Thursday before warming up Friday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Broad troughing resides from the Rockies towards the Great Lakes with zonal flow across the central Plains this morning. Several perturbations are noted on water vapor imagery working through the region: the first is pushing east into Missouri with another following closely behind across western Kansas and Nebraska. In between, the forecast area has been void of precipitation during the overnight hours, but that will change as the second perturbation progresses east this morning. The main short-term forecast challenge is the coverage of showers and storms through the day. Modest ascent will be in place from the passing shortwave and isentropic upglide and is expected to generate scattered to widely scattered showers and storms by mid-morning, continuing into the afternoon and evening. The main axis of heavy rainfall is expected to be across southwest and southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Even so, PWAT values rise to 1.5-2" and an axis of higher theta-e advection sets up from southern into east central Kansas, supporting heavy rainfall with any storms. While widespread flooding issues are not expected, a few local instances of flooding are possible if a location experiences rounds of storms. Precipitation winds down tonight into Monday before another trough moves across the central Plains during the day Monday. A few storms may develop (15-30%) along a stalled boundary in east central Kansas Monday afternoon and evening. This wave phases with remnants of Beryl Monday night into Tuesday with the bulk of precipitation staying east of the forecast area. Some showers or storms on the northwest periphery could (10-15% chance) reach far eastern Kansas on Tuesday before the system advances to the east. The pattern changes for the middle of the week with a western ridge building east toward the Plains. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday before the ridge moves further east, allowing heat and humidity to build Friday into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Coverage of showers and isolated storms later this morning into the afternoon remains uncertain; have maintained VCSH during the most likely period. If a storm impacts terminals, brief heavy rainfall will lead to reduced VSBY. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan