057
FXUS63 KTOP 071920
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
220 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Non-severe isolated to scattered showers and storms possible this
afternoon through part of the evening across the area.

- May still see locally heavy rainfall this afternoon / evening but
no widespread flooding issues expected.

- Dry through the week and warming up into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No significant change in the UA pattern over the past 12-24 hrs. A
broad long wave trough span from east to west from New England to
the northern Rockies with axis extending through the central Plains
region. Tropical Storm Beryl is nearing the southern Texas
coastline. A semipermanent ridge of high pressure is set up over the
west and has continued to build.

Generally, have seen precipitation that is trying to develop over
the area struggle. Several embedded shortwaves continue to enter the
area but as one passes a general area of subsidence follows behind
thus disturbing ascent needed to help develop more widespread
showers and storms with lack of moist regeneration in the mid levels
due to weak isentropic return. Instability is also generally on the
weak side with lapse rates mostly around 6-6.5C/km. Better theta-e
advection is off to the east of the area within the higher PW
airmass. So, given that assessment, the shortwave working through
northwestern KS into north-central areas, will continue to work east
over the next several hours into the evening. Some convective
elements have been observed within this mass of showers but again
erosion of the eastern edge has been observed. Still have an
opportunity for a few isolated to scattered moderate to heavy
showers or storms to occur until this wave passes later this
evening.

Into Monday, the parent trough aloft finally begins to work east as
the western ridge builds and expands east. Tropical Storm Beryl
begins to phase with the long wave trough and transition to an
extratropical cyclone into Tuesday. Should have northwest flow
pattern for much of the work week across the area helping to keep
temperatures near-normal overall. Heights generally rise with the
western ridge holding and gradually expanding into the area by next
weekend. This should help push temperatures back into the 90s and
return heat to the area with overall warm dewpoints in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No significant changes to the current forecast outside of
delaying onset of any SHRA or TS for later this afternoon into
early evening. Still not confident on how widespread showers or
storms may become. May have to leave VCSH for the
afternoon/evening as western showers appear to be eroding and
diminishing in coverage. Still a chance for the atmosphere to
destabilize this afternoon to help the upper wave regenerate
showers and storms with eastward progression. Have identified
the best timeframe for impacts should the forecast remain on
track.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake