106
FXUS65 KTFX 061745
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1145 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler than average temperatures persist for most areas through
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be around again today, and to
a lesser extent tomorrow before a warming and drying trend commences
Monday. Hot temperatures look to last through the week and into
next weekend, with the only uncertainty related to exactly how hot
it will get.

&&

.UPDATE...

A passing shortwave is sending and area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms through Central/North-central Montana this morning.
This will continue to slide southeastward as the morning
progresses. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon, especially along the Rocky Mountain
Front, the central/southwest ranges between the highway 200
corridor and I90, and then areas south and east of highway 87. Not
anticipating anything very strong, but any storm may contain
gusty, erratic winds, brief downpours, and small hail in addition
to lightning. The primary adjustment for this morning was nudge
pops closer to current trends. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
06/18Z TAF Period

Showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue to push off to the
east, mainly impacting the KLWT terminal for the next few hours.
Showers/isolated thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon with a 10-
30% of thunderstorms. However, storms will be hit or miss at
terminals, and there`s less confidence to pinpointing the exact
timing of these storms. Therefore, I`ve kept out the mention of
thunder in the TAFs. If confidence increases of thunder affecting
terminals later this afternoon, then an amendment will be issued.
Brief gusty winds, lightning, and small hail will be a threat to
thunderstorms that form. Isolated pockets of heavier rainfall can
bring brief MVFR visibilities to terminals. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 232 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024/

Through Sunday night...Broad troughing in place across the central
and eastern CONUS, alongside a building ridge just off the coast of
the western CONUS has kept the Northern Rockies in a cool and
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft over the past five days or so.
This trend contiues through Sunday, with temperatures in most areas
continuing to stay below average for this time of the year. Showers
and thunderstorms appear to be mostly the afternoon variety today,
though an embedded wave within the northwesterly flow presently
diving southeastward from Canada along the Continental Divide will
allow for some morning showers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of Central and North-central Montana. Given weak
instability and shear, thunderstorms today look to be unorganized in
nature.

The building upper level ridge begins to nudge eastward Sunday,
though northwesterly flow will persist for one more day across the
region. There doesn`t look to be any embedded waves diving
southeastward through this flow however, so chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to decrease quite a bit. Given marginally cool
temperatures aloft will still be around, showers and an isolated
thunderstorm or two will remain in the cards in the afternoon
Sunday, mostly over terrain.

Monday through next weekend...The aforementioned upper level ridge
will continue to slowly shift eastward, inland across the western
CONUS Monday into the middle of next week. A warming trend will
commence as a result, with temperatures pushing well into the 90`s
at lower elevations by Wednesday. The brute of the heat looks to
peak around Thursday, but an increasing share of longer range
ensemble members favor well above average temperatures persisting
into at least next weekend. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  50  81  55 /  70  10  10   0
CTB  75  49  82  52 /  30  10   0   0
HLN  82  55  87  58 /  30  20  10   0
BZN  79  48  79  51 /  40  20  10   0
WYS  73  38  74  38 /  20  10  10   0
DLN  80  46  79  49 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  78  53  82  55 /  40  20  10   0
LWT  71  47  74  50 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls