293
FXUS65 KTFX 091045
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
445 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

Very warm and dry conditions will persist across the area into
next week with the hottest temperatures likely to occur on
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures fluctuate slightly this
weekend into next week but are likely to remain well above
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong upper level ridge initially centered over southern NV/CA
with axis north through the interior NW US and BC will continue
to gradually expand east over the next 2 days with the axis
shifting east across the Northern Rockies and MT in the Wed/Thu
period. Heat continues to build across the area today with
temperatures 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with Wednesday and
Thursday still looking to see the hottest temperatures as the
ridge axis and associated lower level thermal trough shift across
the Rockies. Temperature forecasts have changed very little with
most lower elevation locations expected to see temperatures reach
the lower 90s today and mid to upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday.
A subtle weather disturbance crossing the ridge Thursday will
slightly moderate temperatures on Friday, but only by a few
degrees before heat rebuilds on Saturday as the upper level
ridge/high becomes established more directly to our south across
the central Rocky Mtn states (UT/CO). Multi-model ensembles all
support a continuation of anomalous upper level ridging centered
across this area through early next week, but cluster analysis
reveals some minor differences in the amplitude of the ridge. In
any case, very warm to hot temperatures are likely to persist well
into next week under this stagnant weather pattern.

Moisture will remain very limited through Wednesday with just some
higher level moisture moving over the ridge bringing some mid to
high clouds at times. The subtle disturbance moving across the
area Thursday and additional disturbances (largely moving by
north of the area) this weekend may provide some lift for a slight
(5-20%) risk of high-based showers and thunderstorms, primarily
across the mountains of central/SW MT. By next week there is some
indication of deeper moisture beginning to move around the ridge
but chances for meaningful precipitation will remain low. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
09/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with little or no
clouds and light surface winds. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Building heat and dryness will accelerate the drying of fuels
over the next several days and increase fire danger indices. In
addition, overnight moisture recovery will worsen through
Thursday, particularly at mid-higher elevations. Winds are
relatively light through Wednesday with some increase in afternoon
breeziness Thursday through the weekend. This, in addition to the
risk for isolated lightning late this week into the weekend will
add to the overall increase in fire weather concerns with continued
heat and dryness likely to continue into next week. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  91  59  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  96  63 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  92  56  96  58 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  84  44  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  89  55  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  93  61  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  87  58  91  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls